In April 2020, negative oil prices were still a lingering fear. Today, three years later, crude oil has entered a historically high price zone.
The emergence of negative oil prices is mainly due to the first major outbreak of the global epidemic. The demand for oil products has plummeted. Crude oil and refined oil inventories have reached a five-year high. Cracking profits have deteriorated rapidly. The consumption of chemical products as fast-moving consumer goods and durable goods has grown rapidly during the epidemic. Production profits have increased sharply, and chemicals have rapidly split relative to crude oil.
In 2022, there will be a reverse split between chemicals and crude oil. Upstream energy represented by crude oil has surged, and downstream chemicals have passively followed suit, and profits have been rapidly squeezed. At present, the profits of the polyester industry chain are shrinking as a whole, with losses ranging from PX to PTA, olefins, ethylene glycol and downstream polyester.
PTA surprisingly finds negative processing fees
The theoretical loss of 1,000 tons per day is 400,000
On March 8, the processing difference of PTA dropped to -12 yuan/ton. If the cost of acetic acid is added, the processing difference dropped to -156 yuan/ton. This phenomenon made people in the industry exclaim that it has never been seen before in history. PTA has never seen negative processing fees in history.
“The spot processing difference of PTA is negative, which means that after counting auxiliary materials, power and other fixed costs, the average loss per ton of PTA purchased and made now is expected to be 400-500 yuan.” Tianfeng Futures analyst Liu Siqi said that for a daily output of 1,000 For a company that produces 100,000 tons, the theoretical loss in one day’s production is 400,000-500,000 yuan.
It is understood that the recent cost-side oil prices have fluctuated too much and increased at an alarming rate. Under such circumstances, the prices of downstream products have increased more slowly, and PTA processing fees have also hit new lows. In the past five years, the highest PTA processing fee is more than 2,200 yuan/ton, and the lowest is about -20 yuan/ton. The difference between the highest and lowest processing fee is more than 2,200 yuan/ton.
As the international oil price exceeded US$100/ton, the product benefits of the polyester industry chain (PX-PTA-polyester) were gradually compressed. As of the close on the 9th, the aggregation cost reached 7,329 yuan/ton, an increase of 356 yuan/ton from the previous day. An increase of 5%, an increase of 14% compared with the end of February. At present, except for bottle flakes and DTY, which are still profitable, according to the calculation model of spot purchase, other products are basically at a loss. Under the pressure of inventory, the growth rate of downstream products is not as high as that of crude oil. Under high costs, as the naphtha cracking price spread expands, the benefits of the aromatics industry chain are gradually compressed.
Polyester filament is extremely uncomfortable:
Parking and production reduction modes will be started one after another
At present, the upstream raw materials are rising, and the resistance of downstream users to high prices is rising, causing the midstream polyester filament to be extremely uncomfortable! Buying orders are strong to maintain rigid demand, polyester filament production and sales are sluggish, and the average monthly production and sales have not evened out. Recently, as the price of polyester filament continues to rise, some users are worried that costs will continue to increase in the future, so they cover a small amount of positions. The production and sales rate increased slightly compared with the previous day. However, during the festival After that, polyester filament maintenance equipment gradually heated up, and the domestic polyester filament industry’s start-up gradually increased to more than 90% at the end of February and early March, and enterprises faced the risk of further accumulation of inventory.
As the main driving force for this round of rising prices of polyester filament and raw materials, the current international oil price trend is closely related to the situation between Russia and Ukraine. At this stage, peace talks are difficult and the cycle is long, so the oil price trend is still expected to rise in the short term. , and under the support of high oil prices, polymerization costs will continue to rise. The cost pressure of polyester filament is highlighted, and it is bound to follow the rise of raw materials. However, high oil prices, high transportation costs and the risk of the epidemic make terminal clothing and textile companies hesitate to place orders. At present, in spring Orders are scarce in summer, and some companies mainly produce sample orders. The operating rate of the weaving industry is slowly increasing, and the operating rate of some machine models is expected to be reduced. Under the current circumstances of high costs, high inventory, low demand, and low profits in the polyester filament industry, companies face scale risks and may start to stop or reduce production. It is understood that some polyester factories announced maintenance plans for mid- to late March on Tuesday.
Once the market turns
The risk of inventory depreciation will increase significantly!
At a time when there are concerns about the rapid rise in raw material costs and the inability of production to make ends meet, the sharp plunge in international crude oil prices may bring some comfort to the industry: the rise in raw material prices has finally pressed the “pause button.”
However, it should be noted that the current negative profit is calculated based on the current purchase and production of raw materials. It can be understood that the daily expenditure on raw material procurement is greater than the product sales revenue, and the company’s daily turnover is a loss. However, there is a certain time lag between the actual factory’s raw material procurement and product sales. If considered from this perspective, the factory’s existing PTA inventory will actually appreciate in value. Nowadays, raw material prices are on the high side, while downstream demand is weak. Under the double squeeze of cost and consumption, losses in intermediate links have intensified. Demand continues to be sluggish, and the backlog of inventory means the occupation of funds and the accumulation of risks. Once the market turns, the risk of inventory depreciation will increase significantly.
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