Introduction: Since last year, the price increase of polyester filament has been mainly driven by the cost side and macroeconomic policies. However, the recent performance of the demand side has been unsatisfactory, which has dragged down the pace of the polyester filament market’s growth. Let’s take a closer look at the impact of demand-side big data on polyester filament. .
Figure 1 Price trend chart of mainstream models of polyester filament from 2020 to 2022
According to statistics from Longzhong Information, the prices of mainstream polyester filament models have generally shown an upward trend in the past three years. As of March 7, 2022, the polyester filament POY150/48 market was at 8,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.60 yuan from the lowest point in three years. %. In addition to cost-side support, demand is also an important factor affecting price trends.
1. The RMB exchange rate will still appreciate in the short term.
Figure 2 Trend chart of the central parity rate of RMB exchange rate in the past five years
Since late February, affected by factors such as Russia-Ukraine geopolitics, the safe-haven nature of the RMB has been revealed. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar has rapidly risen from around 6.35 to around 6.33, and once approached the 6.3 mark on March 1, at 6.3014.
In the short term, the RMB may still appreciate due to factors such as risk aversion and short-term improvement in the foreign trade situation amid the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation. However, considering the obvious improvement trend of the global epidemic, China’s supply advantage may be weakened.
2. China’s export container freight rates remain high
Figure 3 China’s export container freight index in the past three years
CCFI has reached a record high again, and freight rates on ocean routes have remained at high levels recently, showing that the current tight shipping capacity and port congestion still exist. In 2022, the COVID-19 epidemic will continue, ports in the West and the United States will still be congested, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will bring new uncertainties, it will be difficult to improve the turnover efficiency of container ship capacity, and the bottleneck of the logistics supply chain will be difficult to solve. “During the deliberation of the Shanghai delegation held on the afternoon of the 5th, Xu Juehui, deputy to the National People’s Congress and director and general manager of Shanghai Port International Passenger Transport Center Development Co., Ltd., said.
3. China’s textile and apparel export trends are improving
Figure 4 China’s textile and apparel export value and growth rate
After experiencing a downturn from 2013 to 2015, apparel exports have continued to grow since 2016. Affected by the trade war in 2019, exports declined slightly. In 2020, China’s home textile exports continued to grow amid the epidemic. In 2021, textile exports totaled US$117.7329 billion, +8.34% compared with the same period last year. China’s textile and apparel exports from January to February 2022 were US$50.502 billion, +9.51% compared with the same period last year
4. The per capita disposable income and consumption expenditure of Chinese residents have increased steadily.
Figure 5 Per capita disposable income of Chinese residents in recent years
Figure 6 Trend chart of Chinese residents’ consumption expenditure in recent years
The per capita disposable income of residents nationwide in 2021 is 35,128 yuan, a real increase of 9.1%. In the past six years, per capita clothing consumption has increased by 9.8%, of which the actual growth in 2021 is 13.9%. It can be seen that the per capita disposable income of residents and the per capita consumption expenditure of residents are still showing a growth trend.
In summary, various data affecting the demand for polyester filament indicate that although the export situation of polyester filament and its downstream is still hindered by shipping costs, container shortages, and high exchange rates, it has not affected the overall domestic export situation. The overall situation of polyester filament is improving. As a major global supplier of silk and downstream textiles and apparel, the future export situation will continue to improve steadily as China’s economic fundamentals are improving.
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