It rose sharply by US$41/barrel in five days, and fell back to a single-day high of US$26/barrel. In just nine trading days since March, the international crude oil price has fluctuated by 41.6%, which is very rare in history. Commodities such as natural gas and nickel also performed extremely well. Such a market is difficult for most investors to deal with. After experiencing huge fluctuations during this period, we see that funds continue to withdraw from the commodity market. Reduce positions and stay on the sidelines.
The direct cause of such extreme performance of commodities is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the severe sanctions imposed on Russia by the four countries. Such market conditions have made it difficult for traders to resist, forcing more and more investors to wait and see, bringing a lack of liquidity to the market, and the sharp fluctuations in prices have also brought huge challenges to real enterprises. The oil price that quickly shot up to US$130/barrel severely squeezed refining profits, forcing domestic local refineries to start reducing production or even suspending production for maintenance. However, the oil price soon fell back to around US$100/barrel, causing refinery profits to turn around again. But overall, risks outweigh opportunities, making business decisions in real industries more difficult.
Sanctions against Russia have led to drastic changes on the supply side. As a result, cross-regional price differences represented by EFS spreads, spot premiums and discounts, and monthly differences in the futures market have all shown extreme performances that are rarely seen in history. If Russia’s exports of about 7 million barrels/barrel of crude oil and products are completely banned, no one in the world will have the ability to make up for the resulting gap.
On March 7, the United States and the United Kingdom respectively announced a ban on the import of Russian energy, which once triggered a severe panic in the market. Oil prices surged sharply. So far, the market is still difficult to draw a conclusion on this. Although the EU plans to reduce its dependence on Russian energy as much as possible, In fact, many continental European countries cannot live without Russian energy in the short term. Although Russian crude oil has forced many buyers to wait and see due to sanctions and other risks during this period, the market is also very wary of a possible turnaround in this process, so we have seen recent oil prices surge rapidly and then retreat sharply.
Such performance means that sanctions against Russia have intensified supply-side tensions, but it is difficult to make a definite judgment on the relevant impact. The market will continue to follow the changes in the situation to assess the extent of the impact. All of this will take time to give an answer.
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ABEUgaAslBiKAIsWvXLtjY2OCDDz5AmzZt0KpVK+TLlw85cuTAjBkzMGLECBQrVgxFihRB165d8d5776Fo0aKGgODl5YWwsLBoAd+9excTJkyIuLZLly4oWbKkcW2vXr2wf/9+VK9eHYUKFUKdOnXw 6aefGv2aDz/8EFu3bkVAQEC0+eqgCIiACIiACIjAixOIVYg4ceIEmjRpguLFiyN9+vQRQgT/4fv4+KBx48Z488030bRpUxw7dgyXLl2Ct7f3i5dIV4qACIiACIiACMQbgeQgRDg7OxuDHrVr1 8b06dPh6OiIQ4cOoVy5cnjjjTcMYYLncubMaXgt3L9/HwMHDkTu3LlRrVo1w2MiKCgoWmZ79uwxRA3zWnd3d3z99dfGtRQf+vbta/RjqlSpgj/++ MO47/vvv2/cd+rUqXBxcYk2Xx0UAREQAREQTaking into account high inflation, oil prices are likely to remain high, which makes shale oil production profits very attractive. The EIA further increased U.S. crude oil production in its March energy outlook.
In addition, high oil prices may also encourage other crude oil producing countries to increase output. For example, Brazil and Guyana still have the potential to increase production. However, if sanctions against Russia continue, the global crude oil market supply and demand will face great variables. EIA’s latest supply and demand balance outlook has changed drastically for three consecutive months, which also shows the highly unstable nature of the crude oil market. EIA has lowered its forecast for a crude oil market surplus in 2022, which has been significantly reduced by nearly 400,000 barrels per day from the previous period. This adjustment is large, and the negative impact of high oil prices and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the global economy has also lowered its recovery expectations for crude oil market demand in 2022. However, in comparison, sanctions have greater restrictions on Russian energy exports. . What is relatively certain is that the current crude oil market supply is still tight, and the crude oil market throughout the year is still full of variables.
On March 10, the United States announced the February CPI data that the market is paying attention to. The annual rate of the U.S. CPI in February without seasonally adjustment was actually announced at 7.90%. The data performed in line with expectations and continued to hit a 40-year high.
Violent fluctuations in oil prices will trigger a series of chain reactions, and the fragility of the supply side may have some far-reaching impacts. In addition to affecting the energy market structure, it may also accelerate the energy transformation process. This is specifically reflected in the large-scale departure of speculative funds from the futures market. . Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that in the week of March 8, the net long position of NYMEX WTI crude oil held by speculators fell by 3,256 lots to 277,534 lots. Speculators’ net long positions in Brent and WTI crude oil fell by 89,493 lots to 442,087 lots, a new low in the last 11 weeks. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data shows that in the week of March 8, the net long position of Brent crude oil held by speculators fell by 97,122 lots to 157,672 lots, a new weekly low. The net long position in Brent crude oil held by speculators fell by 30,829 lots to 96,252 lots. Obviously, the high degree of uncertainty in the crude oil market has made speculative funds choose to stay on the sidelines.
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