Crude oil
Crude oil: Crude oil prices experienced sharp rises and falls this week. At the beginning of this week, the situation between Russia and Ukraine further deteriorated, and the market was generally pessimistic about the third round of negotiations. The United States and the European Union are considering banning crude oil imports from Russia. At the same time, it is unlikely that Iranian oil will return to the international market in the short term, and supply disruptions are expected to continue to push up oil prices. There was a huge shock in the oil market on Monday. During the Asian trading session, the price of Brent crude oil futures in London once hit a high of $139.13/barrel; however, in the second half of the week, the UAE expressed support for additional production increases, and the Iraqi minister was also willing to increase production if necessary; more importantly Yes, the IEA said that more crude oil reserves can be released to the market. A lot of negative news has been released, concerns about future supply disruptions in oil prices have eased, and oil prices have plummeted from highs. As of Friday’s close, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up $3.31, or 3.12%, at $109.33 per barrel. The price of Brent crude oil (ICE) futures on London’s Intercontinental Exchange closed up $3.34, or 3.05%, at $112.67 per barrel.
PX aspect
PX: The price trend of paraxylene market increased sharply this week. The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the operating rate is around 70%; however, some overseas units are still under maintenance, the operating rate is over 60%, and the supply is normal. The current crude oil price trend is falling, but the cost-side support is still there, and downstream demand is slowly recovering. However, the PTA price trend is declining, and the overall demand side is still supported. It is expected that the paraxylene market price trend will be temporarily stable in the later period.
PTA aspects
PTA: The PTA market price first rose and then fell this week. As of the 11th, the average PTA market price was 6,000-6,100 yuan/ton. Overall, the PTA price fell by 0.69% this week. In terms of costs, geopolitical risks in Europe have temporarily eased, crude oil has fallen sharply, and support for PTA costs has declined. In terms of supply, the operating rate of the PTA industry is currently around 76%, processing fees are at historically low levels, negative processing fees have emerged, and PTA factory maintenance has increased. In terms of demand, downstream polyester production is operating at a high rate but demand is not strong and inventory is backlogged. The quotations of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are flat, and the terminal textile market has a strong wait-and-see attitude and is mainly cautious in purchasing. In summary, PTA is affected by equipment maintenance, and there is no significant increase in the supply side. Downstream polyester is under pressure from high inventories and low profits, or is expected to reduce production. The current cost factor continues to dominate the PTA market. As crude oil falls, the PTA market price is expected to fluctuate and adjust weakly.
MEG aspect
MEG: On Friday, the average P value of oil-based ethylene glycol was 5333.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.00 yuan/ton from the previous statistical period. Crude oil rose first and then fell this week, with Brent crude oil reaching a maximum of $127.98 per barrel during the week, but the supply and demand side remained loose. In terms of supply, Xinhang Energy had a short pause on Thursday. Although the current ethylene glycol operating rate has declined compared with the beginning of the week, the port continues to accumulate inventory. According to incomplete statistics, between March 11 and March 16, East China region The total number of arrivals at major terminals is expected to be approximately 194,700 tons, an increase from the previous statistical period. On the demand side, the improvement in downstream demand is relatively limited, production and sales are relatively light, and the demand side continues to be under pressure. According to the forecast of the Raw Materials Network, it is difficult to see a sharp increase in the demand side in the short term, and ethylene glycol mainly fluctuates with raw materials.
Slicing aspect
In terms of slicing: the market price of polyester chips in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was stable and weak this week, and some offers were lowered. The manufacturer quoted semi-glossy slices at 7500-7700 yuan/ton (cash), and the negotiation price is 7350-7550 yuan/ton (cash); the manufacturer of glossy slices quoted 7700-7900 yuan/ton (cash), and the negotiation price is 7600-7800 yuan/ton. /ton (cash), individual or slightly lower.
Polyester
In terms of polyester filament: international crude oil remained at a high level this week, forming support for the polyester raw material end. The price of polyester filament rose due to high costs, but the increase was limited, and profits were quickly squeezed. In terms of supply, the production and sales of polyester yarn market continue to be light, with the mainstream production and sales of manufacturers being around 20-60%. On the demand side, new orders from downstream textile terminals are limited and recovery is slow. Overlay weaving factories are more resistant to high-priced raw materials and have poor purchasing enthusiasm. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory in the polyester market is now concentrated at 21-25 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 21-27 days, FDY inventory is around 18-21 days, and DTY inventory is around 22-25 days. Factory inventory pressure continues to increase, and the market is sluggish. From the perspective of raw materials, the cost side will still fluctuate at a high level in the short term and be relatively strong. from polyesterFrom the supply and demand side of the filament itself, although high costs and low profits support prices, high inventory and low demand still inhibit its upside. It is expected that polyester filament prices will fluctuate in a range and maintain low profit operations.
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