The recent domestic epidemic has shown a trend of becoming more frequent, more widespread and more frequent. As one of the main raw materials for textiles and clothing, the market is paying more attention to the impact of polyester filament production and consumption places under the development of the epidemic. In the future In a pessimistic environment, the game of supply and demand intensifies, and there are still eggs under cover.
According to statistics, polyester filament production capacity is mainly concentrated in Zhejiang with a production capacity of about 25 million tons, accounting for nearly 70%, followed by Jiangsu, accounting for 21.8%, and Fujian, Shandong, and Liaoning, accounting for 21.8%. 7.1%, 06%, 0.6%.
In addition to Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the downstream consumption areas of polyester filament in my country are also concentrated in Guangzhou, Dongguan, Shenzhen and other places. New confirmed cases have appeared in Guangdong Province in late February. In addition, restrictions on high-speed travel in epidemic-risk areas and increased difficulty in picking up goods at ports have affected market circulation.
In this context, since March, the market has increased discussions on whether polyester production will be reduced. In early March, the situation between Russia and Ukraine continued to ferment, and Brent oil reached a maximum of $139.13 per barrel, setting a new high since 2008. Against the background of strong costs and weak demand, the polyester industry chain has suffered serious losses. Polyester raw materials have begun to reduce production to a certain extent. However, for polyester products, there has been no production reduction, and the load is even increasing. For polyester bottle flakes, the production, sales and profits are still good, and the load remains high. For polyester filament, although the cash flow is loss, considering the factor of inventory appreciation, the actual profit may not be a loss. In addition, as oil prices rise, , Against the background of polyester promotions, production and sales are still increasing in stages, especially in the first week of March, polyester has experienced a destocking process, so there is no pressure to reduce production in stages.
In fact, from a historical perspective, the real pressure on polyester does not lie in the period when raw materials surge, but in the period when raw materials turn back after a surge. In the second week of March, oil prices began to gradually fall after hitting a high. The recent decline has accelerated, and Brent has fallen to around US$100 per barrel. Against the background of falling oil prices, the two major raw materials of polyester have also fallen sharply. Although on the surface, the cash flow of polyester has been restored, in fact, it has brought about inventory depreciation and sluggish production and sales. The pressure on polyester has increased compared with the previous stage. brings more pressure.
Amid the uncertainty of the epidemic and demand development, pessimism has led some downstream weaving and texturing companies to start planning future production cuts. Demand has declined, and the market may show a downward trend. However, it cannot be ruled out that under high inventory and low processing fees, due to poor transportation, There is a shortage of raw and auxiliary materials, and polyester filament companies are also expected to reduce production. Under the pessimistic environment, the game of supply and demand means that there are still eggs under the nest.
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