Recently, the domestic epidemic has been making a comeback. Confirmed cases have been discovered in many places. Epidemic prevention and control measures have been continuously upgraded. Areas with severe epidemics have begun to block key areas. Not only has terminal consumption been suppressed, but some factories have also shut down to cooperate with nucleic acid testing.
Zheng Cotton’s continuous corrections, coupled with the news that the Federal Reserve is about to announce an interest rate hike, caused a temporary panic in the market. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, cotton supply is abundant, but the supply peak has passed, and cotton stocks are now in a consumption period. According to the latest purchase and sales data, cotton sales this year lag significantly behind the same period last year, and the market outlook has not eased. There is still about half a year until the new season of cotton is launched. We should pay attention to cotton consumption in the future. If the destocking speed is accelerated, cotton will still have room to rise. Otherwise, the upward pressure will be far greater than the downward pressure, and the market will follow the direction of least resistance. run.
According to the industrial inventory data of the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, the national cotton industry inventory is approximately 761,000 tons, a decrease of 1.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 28.4%. The purchasing intention survey shows that in early March, 48.4% of enterprises were prepared to purchase cotton, a month-on-month decrease of 8.3%. percentage points; 43.5% held a wait-and-see attitude, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; 8.1% of enterprises did not plan to purchase cotton, an increase of 8.1 percentage points from the previous month. These data show that the number of new orders received by enterprises is currently lower than expected, inventories of cotton and finished products remain low, and the intention to purchase raw materials is weak, all of which are reducing operating risks.
At the same time, due to rising raw material prices and the impact of the epidemic, the production profits of textile companies have continued to decline, production enthusiasm has been greatly reduced, and the operating rate has decreased year-on-year. At the beginning of March, the startup rate of the sampled companies was 81.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points. The reason for the month-on-month increase was that February was during the Spring Festival and the industry was on normal holiday; the yarn production and sales rate of the sampled companies was It was 87.3%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.3 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.0 percentage points; the inventory was 24.2 days of sales, a month-on-month increase of 3.8 days, and a year-on-year increase of 2.7 days. It can be seen that demand is indeed declining.
At this stage, cotton still maintains range-bound fluctuations. Be cautious when it rises sharply, and there is no need to panic when it falls sharply. Enterprises must follow the actual production situation, follow the procurement rhythm, reduce the cost of cotton raw materials, and promote normal production.
</p
