Recently, there is an important economic news worthy of attention, and that is the official announcement of the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, known as the “barometer of China’s economy”, which is what we often call the PMI index.
The National Bureau of Statistics announced on March 31 that due to the epidemic and other factors, the PMI in March was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry has declined. Especially from an industry perspective, the production index and new order index of textile, textile, apparel, general equipment and other industries both dropped to a low of less than 45.0%, indicating that industry supply and demand are both weak.
On the other hand, according to China Customs statistics, from January to February this year, based on the high growth and high base at the beginning of last year, my country’s clothing (including clothing accessories, the same below) exports were US$25.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. Although it continued The growth trend has been maintained, but the growth rate has declined compared with the same period last year. Among them, the growth rate of knitted garment exports has dropped significantly. From January to February, the export of knitted clothing was US$11.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%, which was significantly lower than the growth rate of more than 40% last year; the export of woven clothing was US$10.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, but the export volume dropped significantly by 16.4% year-on-year. ; Exports of clothing accessories were US$890 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%; exports of plastic vulcanized clothing and accessories were US$2.27 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 64.6%, mainly due to a sharp 78.6% drop in exports of medical gloves.
Judging from the operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, there has been a significant slowdown since March. The operating rate is only between 60% and 70%, and there is no obvious upward trend. The main reason is that market transaction feedback is scarce. In many places in China, logistics restrictions have increased due to the impact of the epidemic. Residents’ purchasing intensity has declined. The frequency of terminal textile and garment sample enquiries has declined. The overall market atmosphere is deserted; on the other hand, for textile companies, The prices of cotton, viscose and other fiber raw materials are now rising, and the increase in costs will be difficult to transmit to end products in the short term. On the one hand, the purchase of raw materials cannot be owed, and the delivery of finished products cannot be paid in time. Both ends of the production and operation of enterprises are being squeezed, which extremely tests the development resilience of the industry.
Feedback from foreign parties is relatively mixed. It is reported that some orders from 2018 are still in shipping status and have not arrived at the receiving port, and some seasonal orders have overdrafts in the early stage. Therefore, no new orders have been placed from overseas. At the same time, an industry insider who has received orders from Europe and the United States for many years also told reporters that when domestic trading companies receive orders, they basically arrange them in two production bases at home and abroad, and large orders are produced abroad as much as possible. “For example, when we place orders for the French fashion brand MORGAN and American Levi’s and GAP denim orders, we generally choose overseas bases such as Bangladesh, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Cambodia for production. The production costs in these ASEAN countries are relatively low. , and can enjoy some preferential export tariffs. Domestic only retains some small-batch, relatively complex order production. In this regard, domestic production and processing has obvious advantages, and the quality can be more recognized by buyers. Through such an arrangement, we Balance the company’s overall foreign trade operations,” he said.
In addition, feedback from textile enterprises in Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan and other places shows that under the pressure of continuous increase in chemical fiber and gray fabric storage rates and the continuous tightening of working capital, enterprises above designated size are increasingly limiting production and small and medium-sized enterprises are reducing or even suspending production. more.
It should be noted that in recent times, the international epidemic has continued to spread, and my country’s domestic epidemic has shown a trend of rebounding at multiple points. Affected by the domestic epidemic, some companies have suspended production, which is expected to have a certain impact on the overall operation of the industry in the first quarter. The industry’s “steady growth” throughout the year still faces some uncertainties. Affected by the global economic and political situation, the current external environment remains complex and severe. International oil prices have reached new highs. Enterprises are facing multiple challenges such as high logistics costs, high raw material prices and a strong RMB exchange rate. It is expected that cost pressure will continue this year, and the industry will still move forward under negative pressure.
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