Affected by the high international crude oil prices, domestic chemical products have recently risen to varying degrees. PTA (purified terephthalic acid), a bulk textile raw material, has also come out of the downturn.
As of June 13, the PTA East China market negotiated a reference price of 7,500 yuan/ton, and mainstream factory quotations have increased slightly. There is an urgent need for replenishment in the downstream, and market transactions are good. In the futures market, the main PTA contract also hit a new high in the past three years, with the quotation reaching 7,540 yuan/ton.
Guo Guang, an industry analyst at Longzhong Information, told a reporter from the Associated Press that the current price increase of PTA is mainly due to passive increases following cost logic. On the one hand, international crude oil continues to rise; on the other hand, the overseas supply of PX (paraxylene), the main raw material of PTA, is insufficient. Especially with the arrival of the summer travel peak in the United States, the strong demand for gasoline continues to increase, and local car travel has a negative impact on the economy. The demand for alkane gasoline raw materials (toluene, xylene) has increased. While the prices of toluene and xylene have increased, the supply has been seriously insufficient. In Asia, which is in a price depression, the arbitrage window has fully opened in the United States. Affected by this, the aromatic hydrocarbon market prices in Asia have increased. . Since June, the price of PX has risen sharply, and the increase has exceeded the increase of PTA.
From a demand perspective, the downstream demand for PTA, which currently has a lower growth rate than raw materials, is solid. After the epidemic in Shanghai gradually stabilized, the expected improvement at the consumption level has increased or decreased. The current sales situation of the polyester industry downstream of PTA is good, the short-term demand of the polyester industry is supported, and the end consumption target has been boosted.
For manufacturing companies, the current production scale of PTA is recovering slightly. As of June 13, the domestic PTA operating rate was 74.46%, an increase of 2.86% from the previous day.
Relevant business people told reporters from the Financial Associated Press that crude oil prices and PX prices have fallen slightly in recent days, and the current downstream demand for PTA is good, so PTA’s production capacity has increased slightly. But for enterprises, PTA processing fees are still low, and it is normal for enterprises to control operating rates from cost considerations. It is a very ideal state for enterprises to reduce the operating rate, drive product inventory reduction, and help the industry withdraw funds.
Looking specifically at companies, currently Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) has five PTA units with a total capacity of 11.6 million tons, which are basically operating at full capacity. Dongfang Shenghong (0003101.SZ) has a 2.5 million-ton unit operating rate of 90%. Yizheng Chemical Fiber Two units with a total capacity of 1 million tons are operating at full capacity.
However, some industry insiders told reporters from the Financial Associated Press that although PTA prices have risen sharply recently, PTA profits have declined due to high raw material prices. From a manufacturer’s perspective, maintaining a balance between supply and demand and increasing product profits are the primary considerations.
The current market needs time to digest the excessive gains in the early period. After the impact of refined oil products is reduced in the future, the price of raw material PX will return to normal, and the price of PTA will also decline. However, judging from the current demand and destocking situation, PTA is unlikely to fall significantly in the future.
</p
