Introduction: The domestic PTA market has experienced a sharp decline recently. The decline in the center of gravity of the crude oil market has been negative for the market. The futures and spot markets have experienced varying degrees of decline. However, the operating rate of PTA plants is not high. There will still be several units waiting for maintenance in the future. In the short term, the PTA supply pattern may continue to be destocked.
PTA installation status list
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
This week, the domestic PTA weekly average operating rate was 73.14%, an increase of 0.25 percentage points from last week, with a loss of 391,400 tons during the week. Recently, the 2.2 million-ton unit of Yisheng Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance on June 11 and is scheduled to last for 15 days; the 2-million-ton unit of Yisheng Hainan was shut down for maintenance on May 27 and restarted on June 12; the 6-million-ton unit of Yisheng Chemical is in operation 70%; Yisheng New Materials’ 6.6 million-ton unit reduced its load to 80% on May 23; Fuhai Chuang Petrochemical’s 4.5-million-ton unit reduced its load to 70% on May 26 and reduced its load to 50% on May 30. The load has been increased to around 80%; the 750,000-ton unit of Yadong Petrochemical will be shut down for maintenance on June 18 and is tentatively scheduled to last for 7-10 days.
In the later stage, Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.5 million tons of PTA5# is scheduled to be shut down for technical overhaul and maintenance starting from July 2, with an estimated time of 20 days; Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.2 million tons of PTA3# is scheduled to undergo annual maintenance in advance, which is planned to start on July 23, with an estimated time of 14 days. ; Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million ton unit plans to shut down for maintenance in mid-July, which is expected to last for one month. It can be seen that the planned maintenance equipment production capacity base is relatively large, and market supply is expected to continue to decrease.
PTA inventory status
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
As of June 23, Jinlianchuang statistics show that PTA social inventory is approximately 2.315 million tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons from last week. Although some PTA maintenance equipment was restarted during the week, the supply is still low, and downstream polyester remains high. Construction started, and at the same time Hengli started to produce 300,000 tons of polyester yarn. Demand rebounded slightly, so PTA still maintained destocking.
In the later period (June 24th to June 30th), it is understood that the operating rate of PTA is still not high and the supply pressure is not great. However, the demand for downstream polyester has not improved significantly and consumption is difficult to increase. In the short term, the supply and demand pattern of the PTA market may Not much fluctuation.
In terms of fundamentals, the supply and demand of PTA itself has not been the dominant factor in price operation. However, under the planned maintenance of PTA equipment, the supply is expected to decrease, which still supports the market. However, the current operating rate of downstream polyester remains high, and the urgent demand replenishment is still stable. . Therefore, the PTA market supply may maintain a destocking pattern in the short term. In terms of the market, crude oil prices have fallen back from highs, and the fundamentals of the market are still weak. However, affected by the global cooling of the economy by major economies, the market has a certain degree of negative sentiment, thus affecting the support for the PTA market. Before crude oil stabilizes, the PTA market may be weak in the short term. Focus on crude oil trends and improvement in terminal orders.
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