According to feedback from cotton trading companies in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and other places, as the main ICE cotton futures contract fell below 100 cents/pound and the Zheng cotton CF2209 contract approached the 17,000 yuan/ton mark, the basic price of bonded cotton (USD quotation) and customs-cleared foreign cotton has declined. The difference quotation then fell strongly. However, due to the rapid collapse and sharp decline of the domestic and foreign markets, some trades were closed and suspended external quotations; other traders took the opportunity to significantly increase the basis difference of bonded cotton and customs-cleared cotton, resulting in port US cotton/Brazil Spot quotations for cotton/Australian cotton/Indian cotton are relatively confusing.
Overall, the internal and external market resonance has bottomed out significantly since mid-June. The stimulating effect on port bonded cotton + non-bonded cotton is not prominent, and there are no obvious signs of increased trading volume. Industry analysis shows that on the one hand, the recent performance of the July contract is still very strong. The ICE market table is “strong near, weak far”. The price difference between the July contract and the December contract once reached 28-30 cents/pound. Therefore, bonded cotton, that is, The price reduction of futures cotton spot quotations is significantly weaker than that of the main ICE contract; on the other hand, although ICE and Zheng Cotton both plummeted, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton not only did not narrow, but showed a reverse expansion trend, and cotton spinning mills and middlemen did not easily place their orders. one.
Cotton spinning enterprises in Shandong, Jiangsu and other places have reported that the recent inquiry/transaction situation of cotton yarns blended with US cotton, Brazilian cotton, Indian cotton, West African cotton and other cotton yarns is significantly better than that of Xinjiang cotton yarns, mainly for export-oriented and representative products in coastal areas. Processing enterprises are rigidly purchasing, but as of now, the direct cost of importing Brazilian cotton under the 1% tariff at the port is still more than 3,000 yuan/ton higher than that of Xinjiang cotton in the mainland. Even if the purchase quantity of customs-cleared Brazilian cotton is very limited, it is still 2,500-3,000 yuan/ton higher than that of Xinjiang cotton. Yuan/ton, if medium and high-quality US cotton is used, the spinning cost will be higher. Therefore, the current export orders to Europe and the United States (the ban on Xinjiang cotton) may not be profitable or even have obvious losses, but foreign orders generally have large single contract quantities. , single and fast payment settlement characteristics.
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