Affected by the declining atmosphere of the overall commodity market, polyester chain varieties have continued to fall under pressure in the past half month. At the beginning of the trading on the 27th, PTA and short fiber were the leading decliners, but they rebounded later. PTA closed at 6,586 yuan, down 0.21%, and short fiber closed at 8,008 yuan.
According to industry insiders, the current main driver of PTA prices is still concentrated on the cost side, and its own supply and demand has limited driving force on prices. The recent decline in PTA is mainly due to the impact of macroeconomic weakening and market concerns about the sharp decline in crude oil caused by adjustments to OPEC’s production reduction plan, thus causing the cost of PTA to collapse. In addition, PX installations at home and abroad are restarting one after another, and PX has cooled down significantly as supply rebounded.
With the restart of PTA maintenance equipment in early June, PTA production increased. However, due to the drag of the terminal, it is difficult to increase the polyester load, and the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified. Considering that the traditional off-season is approaching, it is expected that the subsequent improvement of the polyester market will depend on the order situation during the “Golden September and Silver Ten” periods, and it is difficult for the polyester load to increase significantly.
However, the PTA spot basis further strengthened. Because after Fuhaichuang announced its maintenance plan recently, the market’s reluctance to sell has intensified again. At the same time, as July delivery approaches, some traders have a need to buy spot for delivery, which makes PTA spot buying more active. In previous years, July and August were the months when extreme weather such as typhoons were more concentrated. The market was worried that logistics obstruction would lead to an increase in PTA spot tightness, so buying was also more active.
Under the recent continuous decline in costs, the polyester staple fiber market has also sharply given back its previous gains. At the same time, judging from recent production and sales data, production and sales are relatively sluggish, and buying momentum is insufficient. Affected by high temperature and high humidity weather in the future, the electricity cost of textile mills is expected to increase in summer. At the same time, the yarn factory’s own profits are sluggish or even losing money, and the operating rate is expected to have a certain risk of decline. In terms of supply, after July, with the restart of maintenance equipment in Fujian, supply will increase significantly by then.
Ren Junchi, a polyester researcher at CCB Futures, said that from a cost perspective, oil prices may be affected by OPEC’s tight supply, rising prices of refined oil during the peak travel season, and Biden’s renewed efforts to restrict refined oil exports and reduce refined oil consumption taxes. Stimulus, after macroeconomic negative effects are released, it may become stronger again, thereby supporting the strength of PTA on the cost side.
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