Introduction: Entering June, the market has experienced a roller coaster-like market! Exciting enough! It first rose sharply and then plummeted. When the bearish sentiment in the market was at its strongest, it suddenly gave a signal that it seemed to be going up again! So, is this round of market conditions a return to the past? And can it be sustained? You need to be wary of 4 potential risks!
However, first of all, I must introduce to you: what is the retrospective market!
There is such a market situation. It is obvious that the market is “terminal” and there is no hope, but the outside world can stimulate it at will.
The market is very lively for a moment, and then quickly returns to dead silence, which refers to a sudden and strange short-lived market.
Suddenly it went up! The market suddenly came!
Surprised or not? Is it surprising?
Crude oil has risen! Return to 110!
A shot of stimulant to the market that has been sluggish for many days!
Immediately afterwards, the futures market also ushered in a comprehensive boom that had not been seen for a long time.
PTA has increased! MEG has risen! Short fiber has also increased!
In an instant, the circle of friends returned to its former lively state.
The sounds of buying and selling and shouting come and go
This familiar and top-notch “vegetable market” is finally back! ! !
The same industry, the same mood, and sometimes the same wish: looking for orders! Come and buy goods, place an order, big or small orders are all fine!
Therefore, the market needs to be controlled by the big guys!
I heard that the opec+ conference of the chemical fiber industry was held yesterday, with two meetings in a row.
The spirit of the meeting is rumored to be that the alliance will reduce production. It should be said that this result is not surprising.
It is reported that production will be cut by 30%. The last round of joint production cuts of 30% is still in front of us. I don’t remember clearly what the effects and results were at that time…
(Image source: Internet)
Taking stock of yesterday’s market news, there is a little bit too much: upstream joint production cuts, end-of-month promotions canceled, discounts reduced, electricity bills to rise, epidemic prevention policies relaxed again…
The overwhelming tide is coming with the rise in crude oil!
Inquiry, place order, stop selling, price increase! Production and sales are going straight to 200% for the first time in a long time!
For a while, I always felt a little dazed, as if the peak season was back.
But can this market continue? There are still several risks:
1. Constraints on consumption are still prominent, and supply and demand continue to be strong and weak! From June to August, the industry is still in a periodic off-season, and there is no opportunity to increase demand in the short term, which has strong restrictions on continued growth!
2. Entering the midsummer season, under the hot weather in the south, extreme weather such as heavy rains, typhoons, and thunder and lightning are more frequent, and power and production restrictions are still very likely to occur.
3. Crude oil prices may be capped! The G7 countries jointly called for a cap on crude oil prices.
4. Low operating rate and high inventory! At present, both upstream and downstream inventories are at historically high levels, but the operating rate is at a low level. Under such a mismatched relationship, the market is burdened and difficult to operate, which is a bit difficult.
In fact, what I have said can only serve as a reference for everyone. The purchase and sale must be determined according to the conditions of your own factory.
Now, with the strong support of costs again, a sharp decline in a short period of time is impossible! Therefore, the best policy is not to be too bearish and not to be too bullish!
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