The polyester chain has rebounded for two consecutive days, but it fell collectively before noon today and rebounded in the afternoon. PTA led the decline by 2.7%, closing at 6,467 yuan, with ethylene glycol and short fiber turning green. Although the international oil price has been rising for three consecutive years, with the arrival of summer, terminal off-season orders are not good, and the supply and demand side has dragged down the rebound space of the polyester chain.
After the macro shock wave, the focus of the oil market returned to the supply side again. Due to low idle production capacity on the supply side, turbulent domestic situations in some oil-producing countries and unstable supply also worried the market. Oil prices rebounded from lows for three consecutive trading days to exceed 10 Dollar. The rapid decline in current prices in the early period triggered the emergence of some PTA buying orders. Its own supply and demand are acceptable, but the market lacks obvious positive drivers, and the cost side is still the main logic.
With the restart of PTA maintenance equipment in early June, PTA production increased. However, due to the drag of the terminal, it is difficult to increase the polyester load, and the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified. Considering that the traditional off-season is approaching, it is expected that the subsequent improvement of the polyester market will depend on the order situation during the “Golden September and Silver Ten” periods, and it is difficult for the polyester load to increase significantly.
However, the PTA spot basis further strengthened. Because after Fuhaichuang announced its maintenance plan recently, the market’s reluctance to sell has intensified again. At the same time, as July delivery approaches, some traders have a need to buy spot for delivery, which makes PTA spot buying more active. In previous years, July and August were the months when extreme weather such as typhoons were more concentrated. The market was worried that logistics obstruction would lead to an increase in PTA spot tightness, so buying was also more active.
However, the spot price of ethylene glycol is weak. Due to the continuous accumulation of inventory in the main port, it has reached a new high in 20 months. As a result, the domestic spot price of ethylene glycol has quickly fallen back to below 4,500 yuan/ton.
Under the recent continuous decline in costs, the polyester staple fiber market has also sharply given back its previous gains. At the same time, judging from recent production and sales data, production and sales are relatively sluggish, and buying momentum is insufficient. Affected by high temperature and high humidity weather in the future, the electricity cost of textile mills is expected to increase in summer. At the same time, the yarn factory’s own profits are sluggish or even losing money, and the operating rate is expected to have a certain risk of decline. In terms of supply, after July, with the restart of maintenance equipment in Fujian, supply will increase significantly by then.
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