On the 6th, energy and chemical futures plunged collectively again. Three types of polyester chains fell sharply. PTA fell 3.88% to 6,200 yuan; ethylene glycol fell 3.22% to 4,297 yuan; staple fiber fell 2.77% to 4,768 yuan.
As concerns about economic recession hit the commodity market again, panic once again dominated the selling of risk assets. Oil prices once plunged more than $14 in overnight trading, which was the second largest single-day decline this year, although the oil market is still hedged by concerns about tight supply. There is some downward momentum, but the lower-than-expected demand performance during the peak consumption season in Europe and the United States has also made the market begin to worry about changes in supply and demand. U.S. crude oil briefly returned above $100 in Asian electronic trading today, but it did not provide much support to domestic chemicals.
Costs have dropped significantly, and pressure on PTA disks is inevitable. At the same time, the supply of goods in Ningbo increased yesterday, and the tight spot circulation situation has eased. Coupled with the weakening demand for polyester and crude oil, the main force of PTA fell to the lowest level in more than two months. Short fiber also broke through and fell to a new low. In addition to cost pressures, weakening demand, and an obvious increase in supply in July, the market lacked strong support.
EG’s own supply and demand logic is poor and has become an empty product. However, the ethylene glycol factory has suffered losses for nearly 7-8 months. As prices continue to decline, the number of production cuts due to efficiency reasons has increased. The supply side has shrunk significantly, and the operating rate has dropped to below 50%. The supply structure There may be some changes in the future. From July to August, the maintenance and restart of ethylene glycol storage equipment are parallel. Judging from the current situation, Longzhong Information predicts that it will be difficult to increase the domestic ethylene glycol starting load in July. It is estimated that the output in July will reach 1.08 million tons, and the starting load will be below 50%.
It’s hard to expect anything in terms of demand. The raw material inventory of polyester factories is relatively abundant. Recently, factories have been less enthusiastic about buying goods and want to increase joint production reduction efforts. As a result, the spot price of ethylene glycol was weak, as inventory in the main port continued to accumulate, reaching a new high in 20 months. At the same time, it is difficult to improve the delivery level, and it will still take time to eliminate inventory. However, yesterday’s data showed that ethylene glycol was depleted slightly at the main port in East China. Due to the low actual arrival volume, shipments were acceptable under the support of rigid demand.
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