In June, the market prices of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol fell after highs, and the cost fluctuated widely. In addition, the downstream gradually entered the traditional consumption off-season, causing the market price of polyester filament to rise first and then fall. In June, the gross profit of the polyester filament industry gradually improved, but factory inventories were still at high levels. Coupled with the weakening cost push in July and the continued weakening of downstream demand, it is expected that the downward pressure on the polyester filament market will increase in July.
In June, the cost side fluctuated widely, coupled with the gradual weakening of downstream demand, causing the market price of polyester filament to rise first and then fall. In July, there is no positive release on the cost side, and the downstream is still in the off-season of consumption. The demand for polyester filament may continue to weaken. Although mainstream polyester factories have successively reduced production, there are many plans to restart installations in July, and the polyester filament market is expected to be under supply pressure. If it continues unabated, downward pressure on market prices will increase.
In June, the market price of polyester filament first rose and then fell.
In June, the market price of polyester filament first rose and then fell. As of June 30, the average market price of semi-gloss POY150D/48F was 9,043 yuan/ton, an increase of 640 yuan/ton from the previous month, an increase of 7.62%, an increase of 1.53 percentage points from the previous month; an increase of 1,765 yuan/ton from the same period last year , an increase of 24.26%.
The increase in cost drivers was the main factor influencing the price increase in the polyester filament market in early June. The international crude oil price is rising, and the liquidity of the upstream PX market is tight, and the price is rising, which jointly promotes the strong operation of the polyester raw material PTA market. Driven by cost, the downstream purchased raw materials in advance, the polyester filament market production and sales volume increased, and the market transaction focus increased significantly. After the middle of the month, the cost push effect weakened, coupled with the decline in downstream demand, which jointly dragged down the market price of polyester filament. Downstream has gradually entered the traditional consumption off-season, and the cost side has fluctuated widely, making it difficult to negotiate prices for new orders. In addition, inventory depreciation has jointly inhibited the production enthusiasm of downstream texturing and weaving factories. In addition, the consumption of downstream raw materials has decreased, and the shipping pressure of polyester factories has increased. As a result, the supply of low-priced polyester filament yarns in the market has continued to increase, and the focus of market transactions has steadily declined.
Polyester yarn gross profit rebounded in June, but destocking effect was not satisfactory
In June, the gross profit of the polyester filament industry rebounded moderately. In early June, there was a strong “buy-up” mentality in the downstream, the polyester filament market shipments accelerated, the market price rose relatively sharply, and the industry’s loss pressure gradually decreased. Subsequently, cost support declined, but mainstream polyester factories had a strong price support mentality, and polyester filament prices fell relatively slightly. The industry’s gross profit gradually recovered upwards. By mid-to-late June, the average weekly gross profit returned to 247.13 yuan/ton. However, at the end of June, under the pressure of shipments, the supply of low-priced goods in the market increased, and the market price of polyester filament dropped significantly, resulting in a decline in industry gross profit. The average monthly gross profit for the whole month was only 84.21 yuan/ton. According to Zhuochuang Information statistics, the average monthly gross profit of polyester filament (POY150D/48F) in June increased by 246.24 yuan/ton from the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 151.97%.
In June, polyester filament output increased significantly, but downstream demand declined, resulting in unsatisfactory results in destocking polyester filament. The output of polyester filament in June was 3.1702 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.41% and a year-on-year increase of 1.39%. The month-on-month increase in output in June was mainly due to the fact that the three major mainstream polyester factories have successively increased the load of polyester filament devices by 20% since mid-month, involving a production capacity of approximately 4.24 million tons. In addition, there are also many polyester filament maintenance devices in June. Starting from the beginning of June, inspections of pipelines and other equipment in Changle and Ningbo areas have led to the continuous maintenance of Shanli, Jinlun, Quandi and other factory units, involving a production capacity of 1.4 million tons; starting from mid-June, Hengli’s 400,000-ton unit has been undergoing rotational maintenance. , Shenghong’s 200,000-ton and Rongsheng’s 100,000-ton units were inspected one after another. In June, downstream demand gradually entered the off-season, and the industry’s operating rate dropped to a low level. According to Zhuochuang Information statistics, the average monthly activation rate of reloading in June was 67.09%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.17 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 28.08 percentage points. In June, the average monthly comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 56.7%, down 1.61 percentage points month-on-month and 15.55 percentage points year-on-year. Increased supply and decreased demand resulted in polyester filament factory inventories remaining at high levels in June. According to Zhuochuang Information statistics, at the end of June, polyester filament factory inventory was 29.27 days, a decrease of 1.53 days from the end of May and an increase of 1.33 days from the beginning of June.
The pressure on polyester shipments increased in July, and the downward pressure on the market was relatively large.
Polyester factories plan to restart many installations, and polyester filament supply pressure is still high in July. In early July, the three major mainstream polyester factories reduced production by another 2.12 million tons. The specific implementation time of the subsequent 2.12 million tons of production reduction has not yet been disclosed. However, as the gross profit of the industry recovers, the June maintenance and preliminary maintenance will involve a total of about 2.3 million people. Tons of polyester filament equipment is planned to be restarted in July. It is expected that in July, the supply pressure of polyester filament will not decrease, the average monthly operating load may be around 73.5%, and the output may be around 3.1 million tons. Under the combined effect of production cuts and promotions, polyester filament factory inventories may first rise and then fall in July, and the end-of-month inventories are expected to be around 27 days.
The downstream start-up rate may drop from a low level, and the demand for polyester filament in July is still weak. June,Orders for water-jet looms have gradually decreased, while orders for knitting and circular knitting machines have partially increased slightly. In July, foreign trade orders may have increased partially, but the domestic trade market is still mainly light. Coupled with the wide price fluctuations in the upstream chemical fiber market, it is expected that the operating rate of downstream factories will drop to a low level to avoid production risks, and in addition, they will actively sell inventory to collect cash flow. Affected by this, it is expected that in July, the downstream operating rate will decrease and the inventory of gray fabrics will decrease. If the market price of polyester filament continues to fall below the cost line, some downstream factories may purchase the bottom appropriately at the end of the month, and the inventory of raw materials at the end of the month may increase.
In July, the polyester filament market cost support may be weak. U.S. gasoline inventories are increasing, and OPEC+ production increases continue to accelerate. However, supply-side concerns are recurring, which will provide some support for the oil market below. International crude oil is expected to fluctuate widely, and the center of gravity of fluctuations may shift further downwards. The market supply of the upstream raw material PTA is increasingly abundant, but on the demand side, due to expectations of production cuts by polyester factories, there is room for price decline. Another raw material, ethylene glycol market, is expected to continue to be weak due to little change in supply and expected decline in demand.
On the whole, in July, cost support may be weak, and the fundamentals of supply and demand are difficult to significantly improve, and the market price of polyester filament may fluctuate weakly. In early July, the cost driver weakened, but mainstream polyester factories reduced production to protect prices. The market price of polyester filament may have a certain resilience, and the decline in market price may be relatively small. However, the continued losses of downstream texturing and weaving factories have led to a decline in their production enthusiasm. It is expected that downstream demand will continue to weaken. In late July, polyester factories may increase their promotional efforts, and the market price of polyester filament may drop significantly, but it will not Excluded, as the polyester filament industry suffers losses again, the market price of polyester filament may have room for a weak rebound.
</p
