U.S. ports handled a record number of import containers in June, making it the country’s highest-ever June for imports. At the same time, more and more data and analysis indicate that U.S. demand for Asian export goods is slowing.
According to McCown’s latest report, import volume at the top ten ports in the United States increased by 5.9% year-on-year in June to 2.165 million TEU, exceeding the year-on-year growth of 3% in May and 5.1% in April.
1. Port congestion remains and cargo volume is shifting to the east of the United States.
Halfway through July, U.S. port congestion still shows no sign of substantial decline, and congestion has shifted to the east.
Freight traffic continues to shift eastward. Driven by double-digit growth at the Port of New York-New Jersey, Port of Houston and Port of Savannah, import volumes at major ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast increased 9.7% year-on-year to 1.086 million TEU; import volumes at West Coast ports increased 2.3% year-on-year. to 1.078 million TEU.
Maritime expert John McCown, author of the report, said that the trend of east-west coast cargo transfer continued to accelerate in June, with the result that there are currently as many ships waiting for berths in the ports of New York and Houston as at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
As of Tuesday morning, there were 140 container ships waiting offshore at North American ports, according to MarineTraffic slot data and the latest ship queue lists.
Of those, 37% were at West Coast ports and 63% were at East Coast and Gulf of Mexico ports, with long lines forming near the Port of Savannah, New York-New Jersey and the Port of Houston.
McCown said port congestion had evolved from primarily affecting the west coast to all coasts. In ports with a backlog of container ships waiting for berths, there are no demand constraints that affect throughput, whereas the ability to move containers out of the terminal will.
2 The mild peak season is coming
The growing volume of imports at U.S. ports comes amid growing evidence, data and analysis, that U.S. demand for Asian export goods is slowing.
FreightWaves Snoar bookings index to U.S. ports dropped sharply in May and remained subdued in June and July. As of Tuesday, the index was down 32% from May 1 and down 33% from the same time last year.
Stifel shipping analyst Ben Nolan said: “Container shipping demand still far exceeds the capacity of terminal infrastructure. The question is, can volumes keep growing as consumers shift from goods to services? We don’t think so.”
Still, with so many bottlenecks throughout the supply chain, Nolan expects freight rate revisions to be likely to be gradual, and shipping lines should reap huge rewards in the process.
S&P Global Commodities reported on Monday that there was “ample room” for ships leaving Asia bound for North America. A shipping company source said some are now predicting a mild peak season.
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