Although international oil prices softened overnight, the polyester chain trend picked up on the 22nd, and PTA rebounded from a low level, closing at 5,648 yuan, up 1.69%, ranking among the top in cumulative gains during the week. Staple fiber rebounded greatly, while ethylene glycol fell by 2.2%, and its performance during the week was not as good as the first two.
Recently, due to the easing of market sentiment, the rebound in oil prices and the attraction of low raw material prices, some speculative demand has appeared in the downstream, and PTA has experienced a restorative rebound. Although the current recovery situation after the collapse of the commodity market appears to be relatively chaotic, on the one hand, the market is releasing oversold rebound demand after the sharp decline, and at the same time, it is worried that economic pressure may continue to suppress the market at any time. However, PTA and staple fiber led the weekly gains in chemical products.
Recently, the load of some PX devices in Asia has been reduced. In the third quarter, there was little pressure on PX supply and demand. After PXN continued to be compressed, profits were transferred to the PTA link and processing fees were further increased. PTA has shifted from low operating conditions and low profits in the early stage to medium to high operating conditions. However, the operating conditions have dropped significantly this week from the previous month because major factories have carried out maintenance as planned. At the same time, under the circumstances of high-temperature power restrictions and weak terminal demand, there are expectations for further production cuts of polyester, which will continue to exert pressure on the demand side of PTA.
From the consumer side, the industry is currently in the off-season. From terminal weaving, printing and dyeing to polyester, all operations are at a low level. Recently, due to the high temperature in the south, electricity consumption is at its peak. Some downstream enterprises in Zhejiang Province have received power restriction notices, exacerbating the negative impact on the consumer side. feedback. Recently, some polyester companies and downstream textile printing and dyeing companies in Hangzhou, Shaoxing, Haining and other places in Zhejiang have received notices of power cuts. A large polyester bottle flake manufacturer in East China with an annual output of 1.2 million tons has recently reduced production by 30% due to power cuts. Moreover, polyester companies also plan to continue to reduce production by 10% to 15% in the near future, that is, to expand the scale of production reduction on the basis of the original 30% production reduction.
At present, the operating rate of downstream weaving and texturing is only about 50%. If the power supply declines further due to power restrictions, it will be difficult to see a turnaround in upstream polyester sales in the short term, and the pressure of high inventory will still be difficult to alleviate. Therefore, short fiber supply and demand support is also insufficient. Currently, the market’s focus on demand is reflected in the intensity and timing of joint filament production cuts, and attention needs to be paid to whether inventories can be effectively reduced. Until the problem of high polyester inventory is resolved, it will still be difficult to improve the demand side.
EG inventory pressure is still high, the main downstream polyester production starts remain low, and the supply and demand situation has not improved significantly, and the market bull confidence is still insufficient.
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