Introduction: Recently, the supply and demand of PTA itself has slightly improved. Buying orders for immediate needs still exist. PTA prices have stopped falling and rebounded slightly. However, due to the drag of the terminal, it is difficult for demand to change significantly. The upward strength may be limited. Pay attention to unexpected changes on the supply side.
1. Spot market
As of the time of writing, the spot market price of PTA in the East China market has increased, and the basis difference is generally stable. The reference for negotiation is around 5,760 yuan/ton. The factory continues to ship, and the main port supply is mainstream. In July, Hengli and Dahua 09 liters were traded around 200, 210, and 220 yuan/ton. and discussions, most of the buying in the spot market is for urgent needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. (Unit: Yuan/ton)
2. Supply and demand
The overall operating load of domestic PTA devices has stabilized at 71.92%. Recently, the device has changed little and has basically remained at around 80% of the load (the second phase of Yisheng New Materials device has been added, and the domestic PTA production capacity base has been adjusted to 69.89 million tons on February 3, 2022) , PTA output has been stable recently, while the polyester load has increased slightly, and the daily supply and demand accumulation of PTA has decreased. The current comprehensive operating load of polyester is 80.10% (the domestic polyester production capacity base was raised to 68.015 million tons/year on June 22, 2022). The terminal is dragging down, and the short-term polyester load is mainly stable and slightly rising.
3. Current inventory
The current PTA factory inventory is around 4.41 days, and the polyester factory raw material inventory is around 7.94 days. The total warehouse receipts are 26,974, with a daily increase of 0, and effective forecasts of 0. The daily accumulated inventory is 0.04 tons, and the total social inventory is 2.5864 million tons (July 21 PTA import and export volumes in June are adjusted daily, and inventory data are adjusted accordingly).
4. Long and short logic
Bullish logic: International crude oil is relatively high; supply and demand accumulation is reduced.
Short logic: The terminal is not good, and it is difficult to significantly increase the polyester load; the annual new production capacity is around 10 million tons.
Attached table: China’s PTA long-term shutdown and maintenance production capacity statistics (unit: 10,000 tons)
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