The cost support brought by the rise in crude oil has pushed up the price of PTA. Similarly, once the price of crude oil falls, the cost support for PTA price will inevitably be weakened. In the past month, PTA helped the contract price drop from 7,728 to 5,208 yuan/ton, a drop of as much as 33%, which attracted much market attention. From the early plunge to the sharp rise in PTA on the 18th, the direct source is the sharp ups and downs in international oil prices at the forefront. As oil prices fluctuate violently, the situation of PTA has also attracted much attention. With such a low price, is PTA really going to fall below 5,000 points?
Some short sellers have taken profits and left the market! Oil prices recover and support remains
Concerns about economic recession have cooled down, and market risk aversion has declined. Judging from the recent market reaction, some early short sellers have taken profits and left the market, resulting in a sharp rebound in market prices and a slight recovery in market confidence. As U.S. CPI data exceeded market expectations last week, the probability of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hike in July continued to increase, and commodities fell under pressure. At the same time, U.S. President Biden also officially started a trip to the Middle East last week, this time aiming to persuade Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oil-producing countries to significantly increase production. However, the current results have been minimal, and the current tight global crude oil supply situation has not been significantly improved. And there are increasing signs that the continued reduction of Nord Stream 1 supply will plunge Europe into an energy crisis. Therefore, on the whole, crude oil is still in a strong reality, the price has obviously recovered, and there is no basis for substantial accumulation of storage in the short term, and the cost impact on PTA is still there.
Negative feedback from the consumer side, polyester production continues to shrink
Demand continues to shrink and support for PTA gradually weakens, which may restrict the room for short-term price rebound. We are currently in the traditional off-season of the polyester industry, which is superimposed on the peak period of electricity consumption in summer. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, under the background of recent power cuts, the load of terminal weaving and polyester equipment is at a low level at the end of the year. The negative feedback on the consumer side has been shown in the recent sharp correction. incisively and vividly. The overall polyester load will continue to decline, falling to 76.7% last week, a new low for the year. Among them, the operating rate of polyester equipment continues to show a shrinking trend and is at a low point this year. Polyester filament yarns also continue to show a pattern of accumulated inventory. Polyester filament yarn DTY and polyester filament yarn POY have reached new inventory levels since the epidemic. Therefore, the continued contraction of the demand side will have a certain negative feedback on the upstream PTA market, and its support will gradually weaken, which may restrict the space for short-term price rebound.
Therefore, on the whole, the risk of global economic recession is still rising, and the main logic of market transactions is still the cost side. The crude oil market has been volatile recently and continues to follow the fluctuations of the cost side. The current operating rate of terminal looms is at The same period has been low in the past 10 years. The weather is hot in summer and the operating rate of looms will remain low, which is not conducive to the destocking of the polyester industry. The major polyester manufacturers intend to further reduce production capacity by 10%-15% on the basis of the original production reduction and low load, which requires Pay attention to whether major polyester manufacturers implement new production reduction plans. In the medium and long term, you need to pay attention to the effective improvement of the downstream demand-side margin.
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