Although the international oil price has not yet returned to US$100, the trend of polyester chain PTA and short fiber has picked up, and the main forces have continued to rebound. However, the gains shrank on the 25th. PTA closed at 5,610 yuan, up 1.63%, and short fiber closed up 1.39%. Ethylene glycol has been quiet again recently.
Recently, due to the easing of market sentiment, the rebound in oil prices and the attraction of low raw material prices, some speculative demand has appeared in the downstream, and PTA has experienced a restorative rebound. Although the current recovery situation after the collapse of the commodity market appears to be relatively chaotic, on the one hand, the market is releasing oversold rebound demand after the sharp decline, and at the same time, it is worried that economic pressure may continue to suppress the market at any time. However, PTA and staple fiber continued to rebound, driven by the slightly improved supply and demand side.
Recently, the load of some PX devices in Asia has been reduced. In the third quarter, there was little pressure on PX supply and demand. After PXN continued to be compressed, profits were transferred to the PTA link and processing fees were further increased. PTA has shifted from low operating conditions and low profits in the early stage to medium and high operating conditions. However, the recent operating conditions have declined significantly month-on-month because major factories have carried out maintenance as planned. However, some preliminary maintenance equipment was gradually restored last week, and the polyester load increased slightly. As of this Friday, the polyester load was at 78%. In addition, the terminal load increased slightly.
From the consumer side, the industry is currently in the off-season. From terminal weaving, printing and dyeing to polyester, all operations are at a low level. Previously, due to the high temperature in the south, electricity consumption was at its peak. Some downstream enterprises in Zhejiang Province received notices of power cuts, which intensified the negative feedback on the consumer side. . However, stimulated by low prices, there was a strong atmosphere of bargain hunting at terminals last weekend and this week, polyester production and sales increased, and downstream factories concentrated on stocking up raw materials until the end of the month. The order atmosphere has improved slightly, but not significantly.
Currently, the market’s focus on demand is reflected in the intensity and timing of joint filament production cuts, and attention needs to be paid to whether inventories can be effectively reduced. Until the problem of high polyester inventory is resolved, it will still be difficult to improve the demand side. In terms of short fiber, the cost performance of PTA major manufacturers is expected to be relatively strong due to maintenance expectations. However, the spot market bidding is fierce and the superimposed supply increase is expected to be relatively clear. It is difficult to raise spot prices, and the basis difference may continue to weaken.
Under the sharp contraction of the supply side, the destocking of ethylene glycol increased from July to August, and the superimposed valuation was low. After the continuous decline, the support below ethylene glycol was relatively strong. However, the inventory pressure of EG is still too high, the main downstream polyester production starts remain low, and the supply and demand situation has not improved significantly. The market bull confidence is still insufficient, and the price is under obvious pressure.
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