The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates more than expected, and commodities collectively strengthened. Polyester chain has been among the top gainers among chemical futures in the past two weeks, and rose collectively again on the 28th. PTA reported at 5,960 yuan, up 2.12%. Staple fiber and ethylene glycol rose by 2.47% and 4.19% respectively.
Recently, due to the easing of market sentiment, the rebound in oil prices and the attraction of low raw material prices, there has been some speculative demand in the downstream. Recently, the supply and demand of PTA itself has continued to improve. The overall operating load of domestic PTA devices has stabilized at around 70%. Baihong’s 2.5 million tons of PTA maintained a load of 80% for a week. In early August, Hengli Petrochemical had equipment restarted and overhauled. Costs are relatively strong; supply and demand are destocking slightly. However, the terminal is still not good, and it is difficult to significantly increase the polyester load.
In addition, as the delivery month approaches, the PTA09 contract experienced a smooth downward trend in the early part of July, and traders were oversold. However, as delivery approaches, there is not much spot supply, warehouse receipts continue to flow out, and the basis remains at a high level of more than 200 yuan/ton. Oversold positions cannot find suitable spot resources, and they have to reduce their positions and leave the market, resulting in a rapid rebound in the market in the near future.
Affected by the tight supply of PX and the centralized maintenance of the two major PTA factories, the recent cost performance of short fiber has been strong. However, the futures market fluctuated and rose, while the spot price declined weakly, mainly due to the expected increase in supply in the spot market and the impact of continued sluggish demand. Although the inventory of short fiber companies is not high, the current short fiber output is at a high level in three years, and July has always been the traditional off-season for the textile industry. In the environment of the epidemic and overseas inflation, there is a lack of domestic and foreign trade orders. Under the circumstances, this year’s off-season seems particularly “light”. It is difficult for the short fiber market in the off-season not to be exhausted.
A unit of EG South China stopped unexpectedly. Although it is difficult for the demand side to perform well in the off-season, the supply side continues to reduce, and the contradiction between supply and demand has eased and gradually manifested. In addition, it has a low valuation, and the main force of ethylene glycol has rebounded this week. On the 27th, the spot price in Zhangjiagang closed at 4,237 yuan/ton. As the maintenance of Hengli Petrochemical has been implemented one after another, the domestic MEG operation has dropped below 50%. There are still plans for maintenance of coal chemical equipment in the future, and supply continues to be compressed.
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