Recently, with the news that the Federal Reserve will continue to significantly raise interest rates, as well as the decline in manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States, the market has made expectations for a possible further recession in the global economy. Affected by this, the outlook for global crude oil demand has once again become gloomy, and under the influence of various negative factors, international oil prices have continued to decline.
Although it is the peak season for gasoline consumption in summer, U.S. consumer demand for gasoline is still weak. However, from the perspective of some U.S. refineries and related pipeline operating companies, the outlook for energy consumption in the future is still bright. In their expectations, there will still be strong energy consumption demand in the rest of the second half of this year.
The latest monthly report of the IEA in July also shows that even if the growth rate of global crude oil demand will slow down in 2022, the IEA still maintains a certain degree of confidence in the recovery of the global crude oil market and continues to be optimistic about the crude oil market in 2023. develop.
As for the recent crude oil market price issues, some experts said that oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but from a long-term support point, crude oil inventories and idle production capacity in oil-producing countries still have an important impact on the direction of the crude oil market. Other experts said that for China, lower oil prices will likely further reduce corporate production costs and activate domestic demand.
Based on China’s economic recovery and further improvement, the IEA also stated that when some developed countries reduce their demand for crude oil imports due to economic recession, China’s demand recovery and growth will offset the global crude oil recession expectations brought by some of these countries.
At the same time, in the market development next year, China may further increase its demand for crude oil imports and become the main player in driving the crude oil market in 2023. At the beginning of this month, some oil-producing countries raised the price of oil for Asian buyers, which also shows that the market is still optimistic about China’s economic demand and expectations.
However, affected by the fluctuations in European and American sanctions on Russia, the supply of the global crude oil market is sometimes in short supply and sometimes in excess. For countries to truly maintain the stable development of the crude oil market, it is crucial to ensure the openness and free trade of the global market, so that the supply and demand generated are the most practical.
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