Container freight rates fall for ninth consecutive year
The latest Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 3562.67 points, down 177.05 points from last week, hitting a new low since June last year, with a weekly decrease of 4.73%, and falling for the ninth consecutive week. The four major long-haul routes fell simultaneously, with the US East Line and US West Line falling more sharply.
Public data shows that, unlike the market freight rates that continued to rise after the end of March last year, container freight rates rose slightly from the end of April to early June this year and then entered a downward range again. However, due to port congestion still prevailing, the month-on-month declines were maintained. below 5% level.
Huatai Securities released a research report stating that container transportation, as an important carrier of global trade, is directly affected by consumer demand in the European and American markets. Looking forward to the second half of the year and 2023, freight rates will maintain a downward trend, but will still be higher than pre-epidemic levels.
In the latest period, freight rates on major routes all fell:
◾Far East to West America fell by US$346 to US$6,153/FEU, a decrease of 5.32%;
◾Far East to US East fell by US$224 to US$9106/FEU, a decrease of 2.40%;
◾The freight rate from the Far East to Europe is US$4,971/TEU, a decrease of US$195 or 3.77% from last week;
◾The freight rate from the Far East to the Mediterranean is US$5,633/TEU, a decrease of US$219 or 3.74% from last week.
◾For Southeast Asian routes, it was US$775/TEU, a decrease of US$71 or 8.39% from last week.
◾For the Persian Gulf route, the freight rate was US$2,372/TEU, down 8.8% from the previous issue.
◾The Australia-New Zealand route continued to fall, with the freight rate at US$2,902/TEU, down 2.9% from the previous issue.
◾The South American route has fallen for three consecutive weeks, with the freight rate at US$9,214/TEU, down US$317 from last week and 3.33% from the previous issue.
Drewry World Container Index (WCI):
The latest comprehensive index was US$5,956/FEU, a weekly decline of 3%, falling for the 24th consecutive week.
Among them, the spot freight rate from Shanghai to Genoa fell by 10% from the previous week, or US$960, to US$8,779/FEU;
The spot freight rate from Shanghai to Los Angeles dropped by 2% to US$6,834/FEU;
Shanghai to New York is basically unchanged at US$9,749/FEU;
Shanghai to Rotterdam fell 1% to $8,833/FEU.
The Baltic Freight Index (FBX) global composite index was 5,956 US dollars/FEU, down 3% on the week; the US West fell sharply by 7% to 6,149 US dollars/FEU; the US East fell 4% to 9,484 US dollars/FEU; Northern Europe fell 5% to 9,986 USD/FEU. Only the Mediterranean rose 2% to $10,877/FEU.
The latest report from the Ningbo Shipping Exchange stated that the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) fell by 4.7% from last week, and the freight indexes of 21 routes all fell. Consumer purchasing demand on European routes is weak and the market is oversupplied. The peak season of North American routes is not strong, and freight demand has not improved. ,
Hapag-Lloyd, the world’s fifth largest liner company, recently announced strong results for the first half of 2022 and predicted the outlook for container shipping: demand is slowing, spot freight rates will continue to fall, and the current very serious congestion will be alleviated. . But demand has not collapsed.
In addition to the impact of the demand side and shipping capacity supply on freight rates, the business strategies of liner companies, the carbon emission reduction requirements of the International Maritime Organization, and the supply chain layout of multinational companies will bring more uncertainties to the shipping market.
In addition, already congested overseas ports may worsen due to recent frequent strikes, which may become a major supporting factor for freight rates on some routes to remain high or temporarily rise sharply.
However, considering the expected intensification of the global economic recession, the improvement of ship operation efficiency, and the intensive launch of new ships in the next two years, there is a risk that high freight rates in the shipping industry will be difficult to maintain in the medium and long term.
Shipping companies have suspended sailings on a large scale
According to the latest data from Drewry, specific to the suspension arrangements for the next five weeks (33 weeks to 37 weeks), the three major alliances accounted for 80% of the canceled sailings, with a total of 81 canceled routes.
Among them, THE Alliance announced 33.5 cancellations, 2M Alliance announced 25 cancellations, and OA Alliance canceled 22.5 times.
Among a total of 756 scheduled sailings on major routes such as trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic, Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean, 98 sailings were canceled between week 33 (8.15-21) and week 37 (9.12-18). The rate is 13%. According to Drewry data for this period, 64% of empty flights will occur on the eastbound trans-Pacific trade route during this period.
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