This week, polyester has weakened following the fluctuation of international oil prices at the cost end, and the performance of different varieties has varied.
According to Zhu Lihang, a researcher at Zheshang Futures, PTA’s performance was relatively strong in the first half of the week. With both PX and PTA on the spot side being tight, prices in recent months have been firm, and the 91 spread has continued to rise to a high of more than 500 yuan/ton, limited by the fourth quarter There is pressure to put into production, and the 01 contract will subsequently weaken.
Looking ahead, downstream polyester ton inventories are still at high levels. Zhu Lihang believes that it is difficult to have too optimistic expectations for polyester loads in the short and medium term, and terminal textiles and polyester are more affected by the power restriction policy. Although September and October The peak season is approaching. Under the current city policies and inventory levels, it is difficult to have too much expectations for the start of construction during the peak season, or it may still maintain low-load operation. “After we can really see inventories falling to normal levels, we will then consider the possibility of demand improving.”
In Zhu Lihang’s view, although the PTA supply side is currently undergoing a large-scale overhaul, its own inventory has been reduced, but the large-scale maintenance is difficult to maintain, and several large integrated devices are about to be put into production in the fourth quarter. The subsequent processing fees of PTA will be Compressed to a low of less than 400 yuan/ton. As the overall PX load in China and Asia slowly increases, and new devices such as Shenghong Petrochemical are coming into operation, the upstream PXN will gradually be compressed, and there will be greater room for the cost center to shift downward. Overall, he believes that due to weak demand and production pressure, PTA in the fourth quarter may still be based on valuation compression logic.
In terms of ethylene glycol, the current supply-side start-up has dropped to the lowest level in the same period in history. According to the import data, the import volume has not been high recently, with a sharp decline month-on-month. “With such a contraction on the supply side, port inventories have not yet been destocked.” Zhu Lihang told reporters that the drag on demand for ethylene glycol is even more serious. There will be many new ethylene glycol units put into production in the future, and the subsequent supply and demand will further worsen the production capacity pattern. In his opinion, the current profit of oil processing has broken out of the normal range and does not have much reference significance. The profit of oil processing equipment is more based on the maintenance status of several large pairs of equipment. The inventory of ethylene glycol has not improved. Against this backdrop, he remains unchanged on his mid- to long-term bearish view on ethylene glycol.
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