PX profit: you will have to pay it back sooner or later

Since the middle of 2016, the production of PX from naphtha has continued to be profitable, but profits have continued to shrink since August. Production profits have dropped by about US$94/ton in more than 2 months. Why has PX fallen from the “altar of huge profits”? You parse.
Usually when the profitability of chemical products is mentioned, the first thing that comes to mind is PX. Because PX profits are profitable all year round, manufacturing companies love and hate it. Because PX has the strongest profitability in the aromatics industry chain, it can offset the negative impact of other products. Profit enables the company to develop healthily, but it is extremely difficult to launch the PX project, and there is great public resistance and environmental pressure.

The current PX production equipment is generally attached to the aromatics complex unit of the refining and chemical enterprise. The equipment usually includes reforming, extraction, separation, disproportionation, adsorption and isomerization. The main raw materials used for PX production are divided into naphtha and isomerization. There are two types of xylene. The mainstream production equipment uses naphtha as the raw material to calculate the cost and profit. The PX break-even formula is naphtha + US$300. The other isomeric xylene is used as the raw material to calculate the cost and profit. The PX break-even formula is isomeric xylene. +$150. Since there is no independent MX-PX device in China and it is unprofitable to directly use MX to produce PX, the mainstream refers to naphtha as the production raw material.
In the near future, although the production of PX from naphtha is very profitable, the profit has shrunk significantly. At the end of July, the production profit was as high as 147 US dollars / ton, but the profit continued to decline soon. So far, the profit of PX production is only 53 US dollars / ton. The reason is that the timing of PX’s profit decline coincides with the bottoming out of international crude oil. International crude oil has continued to rebound from around US$39/barrel in early August to around US$50/barrel now. In other words, the cost aspect The shock was strong, but PX was unable to follow the rise, causing the naphtha-PX price difference to shrink. The following factors affect the rise in PX prices: ACP prices fell in August, the market atmosphere was weak, Asian equipment had less maintenance, and supply was stable. In addition, production companies in East China began to reduce loads or even shut down around the time of the G20, and terminal polyester companies had the most parking. , several PTA companies have installed equipment for maintenance, but the PX equipment in East China has not been overhauled and the operating rate has remained at normal levels. Therefore, the supply is under obvious pressure and merchants’ buying intentions are flat. India’s Reliance Company’s new 2.2 million tons/year PX device is scheduled to be put into operation at the end of October. The current market sentiment is average.
Given that PX profits rarely fall below US$50/ton, it is unlikely that PX profits will continue to shrink. However, due to the generally bullish market sentiment and stable fundamentals, Treasure Island expects that PX production profits may remain at US$50/ton in the short term. Shock around tons