At the end of September, OPEC unexpectedly reached an agreement to freeze production, and cotton rose sharply due to the increase in new cotton prices. Although the polyester staple fiber market has always lacked confidence, prices followed their rise and soared in October, which was not optimistic by everyone. Today, the production and sales of polyester staple fiber market have continued to be tepid, and factory supply only has high quotations without demand support. So under such circumstances, how will the market outlook perform?
Looking back at the trends in the past four years, as shown in the figure below, polyester staple fiber prices in October and November of previous years were indeed mainly stable and declining. From a fundamental point of view, textile and apparel gradually entered the off-season of demand, and the downstream yarn mills themselves made meager profits. , under the background of tight funds, there is a phenomenon of load reduction. After the initial demand for polyester staple fiber has dropped, the inventory situation is in danger of rising. Moreover, the current polyester staple factory operation is relatively high, and under the background of oversupply, there is indeed a certain risk of decline in November.
But as shown in the figure above, the two rising prices in July and October this year are difficult to match the trend of previous years. After market participants repeatedly stepped on the wrong turning point, the truth of “seeing is the best policy” has also spread in the industry. We have to admit that it is very difficult to judge the trend of the market today. We can no longer be too bearish on the market as before, nor can we do long operations when the entire economic environment is relatively weak. From this point of view, it is always necessary to be cautious. of.
The author believes that polyester staple fiber has been consolidating at the bottom for too long. As the three major cotton spinning raw materials, cotton and viscose staple fiber have experienced their own revitalization, but polyester staple fiber continues to hover at the bottom. Looking at the market outlook, polyester staple fiber factories currently have low inventories after being oversold in the early stages, and some companies even have negative inventories. Even though the downstream stocking has been intensive in the early stage and it is difficult to be enthusiastic about stocking again due to the average terminals, some polyester short-term export companies have relatively concentrated recent orders, and next month is approaching foreign Christmas. It is expected that export orders will still maintain a certain growth rate. This part It just makes up for the negative effects of the domestic market gradually entering the off-season. Therefore, in the past half month, the short-term polyester market may still maintain a high-level consolidation rhythm. However, there are still many risk factors in November. OPEC’s production cuts, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting, etc. will affect our judgment. Therefore, in the long run, we have to pursue the truth of “seeing is the best policy.”
