PTA’s upward driving force in the market outlook is slightly insufficient

Affected by the recent bullish atmosphere in the commodity market, PTA finally ushered in a wave of rising prices after consolidating for a long time. However, the difficulty of the rising market is obvious to all. After one month, PTA rose by 300 yuan. The increase of many leading varieties may allow PTA to rise. Been struggling for a long time. When some varieties begin to adjust, will PTA continue to rise?


Entering November, Longzhong Information believes that for more information on PTA oil products, local refining and trucking prices, crude oil closing prices, please follow the WeChat public account Longzhong Group: longzhongjituan1988, the room for continued rise in the market outlook is relatively limited. From the following aspects, the upward driving force of the market Slightly lacking.
The market outlook for crude oil is confusing and it is difficult for prices to rise
1. At the end of November, the OPEC meeting will discuss the details of production restrictions. However, there is still a lot of bad news in the market. For example, there are currently serious differences within OPEC on production restrictions. It is not yet known whether they can reach an agreement during the meeting or whether they will just verbally limit production to boost market sentiment. Even if the production limit is reached, it is still unclear whether it can be implemented.
2. The Fed’s interest rate hike process will not stall, and the U.S. dollar is expected to form a bull market and counterattack crude oil prices.
3. When the international oil price approaches US$50, U.S. shale oil production may pick up again, which will slow down the process of returning supply and demand to balance.
PTA market supply will increase after all the positive news
From November to December, domestic PTA start-up load will remain above 70%. Unless there are special circumstances, the general market supply will not decline. Currently, only the No. 2 unit of Zhuhai BP intends to shut down for maintenance at the end of the year. Large installations such as Yisheng Hengli currently have no intention of parking. After the destocking process in the first few months, the domestic PTA market may enter a state of increasing inventory in the next two months.
The further increase in downstream demand is limited
At present, the downstream polyester market still maintains a high load level. Entering November, terminal textile demand will gradually weaken, and the start-up load of the polyester market will be limited again. This is slightly negative for the raw material PTA.
Commodity market faces adjustment
After a sharp rise in the early stage, the commodity market is now entering the adjustment stage. The PTA market is inherently a weak commodity among commodities. During this period of commodity adjustment, it is more difficult to rise, so we must maintain the adjustment and shock approach.
Upstream cost and price support weakens
With the firming of upstream naphtha prices, PX prices have basically fluctuated around US$800/ton in the past month, and profits have also shrunk significantly. In the later period, with the restart of the early parking device and the arrival of some European and American supplies in the Asian market, PX prices will come under pressure.
In summary, the short-term PTA market is still showing a weak trend, and there is a lack of motivation for the market outlook to rise. We need to pay attention to international oil prices and capital trends.