On Double Eleven, Tmall’s transaction volume exceeded 120.7 billion yuan, and e-commerce transactions exceeded 200 billion yuan, creating huge volumes. However, commodities were still stolen from the skyrocketing to plummeting. Almost all commodities opened at the daily limit on that day, but during the session In addition to cotton and natural rubber, other commodities also almost fell to the limit. People lamented that such extreme and unusual market conditions have not been seen in decades, and it only takes a few minutes to be ecstatic and miserable.
On the 11th, the main contract of Zheng cotton strongly broke through 16,000 yuan/ton and closed at the daily limit of 16,270 yuan/ton. As soon as the night market opened, each contract violently pushed up again. CF1701 broke through 17,000 yuan/ton and hit the daily limit again (17005). , when the capital crowd was excited and high-fiving, the daily limit was quickly opened, and the long positions were not even given a chance to close. It went straight to the lower limit (14775), with a fluctuation range of 2230 points. All futures traders were suddenly liquidated and were forced to do so. News of forced liquidations and transactions broke out on a large scale – there were many hedging and short sellers who had their positions liquidated at the opening limit; when the limit fell during the session, bulls and speculators were cut off again, with a slap on the left and a slap on the right. Slap, long and short cannot escape.
Echoing the huge earthquake in domestic commodities, the main ICE cotton futures contract on the 11th surged to 71 cents/pound (71.44) and then dived during the session, but the fluctuation was only 3.13 cents/pound, a range of 4.38%, which was similar to that of Zheng cotton. The skyrocketing and plummeting prices are completely different. On the one hand, it shows that the funds and hype on ICE futures cotton are significantly lower than those of Zheng cotton. The USDA monthly report once again raised cotton production in the United States, India, and Pakistan, and global supply pressure further increased. The driving force for the rise and fall of ICE cotton futures mainly came from the trend of external U.S. dollar index, grains and other commodities, not fundamentals; on the other hand, due to the unlimited transportation pressure of Xinjiang cotton Amplified speculation, coupled with the need for mainland textile companies to replenish their stocks, make it possible for Zheng cotton bulls to “force their positions”, while the pressure on ICE futures cotton futures is greater, and cotton farmers, exporters, and foreign businessmen are less willing to hedge. powerful.
Regarding Zheng Cotton’s “go to heaven and earth”, foreign businessmen and foreign cotton companies have been very calm. The internal market and external market have been highly integrated, and it is impossible not to be implicated. Some foreign businessmen and traders said that the “aftershocks” of cotton futures are reflected in:
1. Due to the increase in ICE cotton futures and foreign cotton spot prices, inquiries, signings, and shipments including bonded area, spot, forward U.S. cotton, Australian cotton, Uzbek cotton, etc. have all decreased significantly. The main contract is 68 cents/pound. Become the “benchmark” for buyers to measure whether they can enter the market;
2. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has once again widened to more than 2,000 yuan/ton. The huge rise and fall of Zheng cotton and other commodities will have a negative impact on China’s real industry chain. Since early November, the price of Xinjiang cotton “3128/3129″ in the mainland warehouse is 15,800-16,200 yuan/ton, and the price of slightly higher quality state reserve cotton is also 15,500-15,800 yuan/ton (gross weight). Due to overcapacity, The ex-factory prices of Indian cotton S-6 and J34 have dropped to 72.50 cents/pound and 71.30 cents/pound, equivalent to RMB prices of approximately 10,837 yuan/ton and 10,657 yuan/ton, which are 5,000 yuan/ton lower than domestic cotton prices. Ton or so, with the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton so widened, Indian and Pakistani cotton mills have more room to cut prices or adjust exports. For example, on the 11th, the quotations of C/A SM, EMOT SM, and Indian S-6 1-5/32” for the November/December shipping date were 82.70 cents/pound, 80.75 cents/pound, and 75.5 cents/pound (CNF) respectively. Quoted), the RMB costs under 1% tariff are 14,200 yuan/ton, 13,900 yuan/ton, and 13,000 yuan/ton respectively;
3. India, Pakistan, Vietnam and other countries are once again exporting cotton yarn to China. Affected by high domestic cotton prices, insufficiency of Xinjiang cotton transportation out of Xinjiang, and import cotton quota restrictions, the production capacity of domestic cotton yarns with counts of C32S and below has continued to decline. The proportion of small yarn mills reducing and suspending production is still increasing. Therefore, the supply of low-count yarns will once again be determined by Imported yarn dominates. In early November, the quotations of domestic C21S and C32S yarns were 21,500 yuan/ton and 22,600 yuan/ton respectively (small factories, medium distribution yarns), while the Indian C21 and C32S yarns that arrived in Hong Kong in mid-to-late December were quoted in RMB only 20,300 yuan after customs clearance. -20,500 yuan/ton, 21,500-21,800 yuan/ton, the internal and external price difference is nearly 1,000 yuan/ton, and judging from feedback from cloth factories and clothing companies, the quality of Indian yarn is more stable and consistent than that of Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Indonesia and other producing areas. Better; compared with Vietnamese yarn, which is dominated by small factories with less than 20,000 spindles and cannot accept large orders or deliver timely goods, Indian yarn mills have more and more outstanding advantages in large scale and sufficient supply of raw materials.
