[Introduction]: my country’s chemical fiber textile industry has always had a peak season of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”. So this year, against the background of continued overseas inflation and sluggish domestic demand, the market performance was very weak from July to August; polyester staple fiber is the main cotton spinning raw material , facing the strength of the upstream end and weak demand, spot processing fees continue to be compressed; with the gradual end of high-temperature power restrictions, can the increase in operating rates of downstream spinning, weaving, printing and dyeing and other links drive the price increase of basic textile raw materials?
Since August, high-temperature power cuts have combined with high inventories, and the operating rates of domestic spinning and weaving companies have continued to decline. As shown in the figure above, the operating rates of both pure polyester yarn and downstream cotton spinning machines are lower than the same period in previous years, and even more so at the current time. It is at a low point except during the Spring Festival. However, the high temperature situation in various places has eased recently. From this weekend, some enterprises will end power rationing. It is expected that the operating rate of spinning and weaving enterprises will increase. However, orders from terminal weaving enterprises are currently scarce. Generally speaking, weaving orders will show signs of improvement in mid-to-late August, but currently only some companies have placed a small number of foreign trade orders, and domestic trade orders are still weak. Against this background, the peak season in September may be difficult.
Furthermore, although the polyester staple fiber market has risen slightly recently, the increase in futures prices is much higher than the spot price, indicating that the supply and demand in the spot market are still weakening. As of today, the short fiber basis difference has been compressed to within 10+200. In the past two days, The daily weakening trend is obvious.
Looking at the market outlook, power cuts in many places since mid-August have also affected the start of operations of short fiber companies. Suqian Yida, Sichuan Huvis, Chuzhou Xingbang and other companies have all been affected, and the short fiber load has also dropped to 75.31%. However, as With the end of high-level power rationing, the gradual restart of preliminary maintenance equipment, and the successive release of new production capacity, supply is expected to increase significantly in September, and the short fiber load is expected to increase to around 82%. However, in the downstream polyester yarn market, the end of power cuts and the arrival of the traditional peak season will drive some companies to increase their operating load. However, with limited terminal orders, the increase in operating rate is expected to be limited, making it difficult to form a strong support for the short fiber market. In September Staple fiber accumulation pressure is expected to increase.
However, in terms of costs, the rise in crude oil has boosted market sentiment, and the main PTA suppliers may still have plans to reduce their burden. The recent market performance has been strong, but there are still many units restarting this weekend and next week, but the recovery of polyester production capacity is slow. PTA’s subsequent demand support is insufficient, and the upward trend is difficult to continue; although ethylene glycol continues to be at a low level, there is no obvious positive driver in the market. Taken together, it is difficult for polyester staple fiber to get out of the independent market even if the cost is near strong and far weak.
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