Recently, according to media reports in many places:
The industry said that concerns about “order shortage” have arisen from mainland China to Vietnam and India.
According to the Vietnam Ho Chi Minh City Business Association, orders from industries such as electronics, textiles, and footwear have been greatly affected by orders from Europe and the United States.
The impact of the slowdown in orders is greater. India’s export orders for clothing and home textiles also fell by 20% to 40%, not only delaying previous orders but even reducing orders for the next season.
19,000 people put on unpaid leave
According to Taiwan’s “Economic Daily” report, the Taiwan authorities’ economic affairs department announced on the same day that the order amount in July was US$54.26 billion, a decrease of 1.9% from the same period last year. Among them, orders from Taiwan, China, to mainland China and Hong Kong, China, decreased by 22.6% year-on-year, and have declined year-on-year for four consecutive months.
As for recent reports that a large factory plans to force workers to arrange compensatory leave and special leave due to reduced orders, Wang Jinrong said that according to the Labor Standards Law, special leave should be arranged by workers. If the employer forces employees to take special leave on specific days, Taking special leave is a clear violation of the Labor Standards Act and may result in a fine of NT$20,000 to NT$1 million.
Taiwan’s “Ministry of Labor” announced the latest statistical data on overtime breaks (unpaid leave) on the 24th. The number of people implementing this period is 19,750, an increase of 718 compared with the previous period. The reason is that travel agencies, wholesale and retail industries, etc. have renewed their permits in this period. Implementation, and two manufacturing manufacturers have newly applied for implementation due to reduced foreign orders.
The recession alarm is ringing again!
U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly increased by 0% month-on-month in July
According to “Wall Street Insights”:
Following the collapse of macroeconomic indicators such as PMI, another sign of deterioration in the U.S. economy emerged.
Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce on Wednesday showed that durable goods orders in July increased by 0% from the initial value, lower than the 0.8% expected. The moon is moving upward.
Durable goods orders are likely to weaken in the coming months as borrowing costs rise and uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook grows. Data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Markit manufacturing, services, and comprehensive PMI hit new lows in more than two years in August, indicating a significant economic deterioration.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may continue to be hawkish at the upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks to show his determination to combat inflation.
In addition, after Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari made a hawkish statement, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September has risen to nearly 60%.
Global merchandise trade growth slowed in the second quarter
The World Trade Organization says in a new report:
Global merchandise trade continued to grow in the second quarter (Q2) of 2022, but at a slower pace than in the first quarter and is likely to remain weak in the second half of the year. The reason is that the drag from the Russia-Ukraine conflict was offset by growth in China.
The WTO predicts that global trade in goods will grow by 3.0% in 2022. However, uncertainty has increased due to factors such as the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, rising inflationary pressures, and expected tightening policies in developed economies.
European business activity is in the midst of its second straight month of contraction. According to the latest data from S&P Global, the Eurozone Composite PMI, which measures manufacturing and service industry activities, fell to 49.2 in August, an 18-month low. Manufacturing output fell for a third consecutive month, and services output was just one step away from shrinking. Both industries reported a decrease in new orders.
S&P Global said customers were showing more hesitation in placing orders, leading to a sharp decline in new orders. At the same time, factories reported increased inventories as product went unsold. Andrew Harker, an economist at S&P Global, said the inventory glut indicated “difficult prospects” for manufacturing production to improve in the short term.
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