Currently, imports of goods from Europe and the United States and exports of goods from Asian countries are declining, and the decline in container shipping is unstoppable.
The latest Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 3154.26 points, down 275.57 points from last week, with a weekly decline of 8.03%, the largest weekly decline since the epidemic, and has fallen for 11 consecutive weeks.
In the latest period, freight rates on major routes continued to fall:
The freight rate from the Far East to the US West is US$5,134/FEU, down US$648 or 11.21% on the week;
The freight rate from the Far East to the US East was US$8,801/FEU, down US$191 or 2.12% on the week;
The freight rate from the Far East to Europe was US$4,441/TEU, down US$347 or 7.25% on the week;
The freight rate from the Far East to the Mediterranean is US$5,071/TEU, down US$412 or 7.51% on the week;
The freight rate on the Southeast Asia route was US$591/TEU, a weekly decrease of US$158, or 21.09%;
The freight rate of the Persian Gulf route was US$2,057/TEU, down 7.8% from the previous issue.
The freight rate on the Australia-New Zealand route was US$2,797/TEU, down 2.0% from the previous issue.
The freight rate on the South American route was US$8,828/TEU, a week-on-week decrease of US$137, or 1.53%.
Among them, the US-Western, Mediterranean and Southeast Asian routes suffered larger declines last week, with weekly declines of 11.21%, 7.51% and 21.09% respectively. The highest decline was in the Southeast Asian route, with a weekly decline of 21.09%, which was mainly dragged down by the sharp drop in freight rates on the Vietnam and Thailand routes.
Shipping companies and freight forwarders interpret that due to inflation in the European and American markets, sluggish demand and overstocked inventories, as the supply of goods decreases, shipping companies’ pressure to fill cabins triggers the phenomenon of bargaining and grabbing goods, and freight prices have become a trend.
At present, it seems that the only things that can save freight rates are strikes at major European and American ports, port congestion and other factors, which will determine the decline in freight rates.
As the traditional peak season market failed in the third quarter, the market began to pay attention to the speed and bottom of the decline in freight rates. Shipping companies continued to regulate the supply of space to support freight rates. At present, long-distance lines in Europe and the United States still enjoy excess profits.
However, if the decline continues to expand, every time it reaches an important level, it may affect the shipping market ecology.
Drewry’s World Container Freight Index (WCI) has declined for 26 consecutive weeks. The latest WCI composite index continued to fall sharply by 4% to US$5,985.53/FEU, down 39% from the same period last year.
Decline of major European and American routes:
Shanghai-Los Angeles freight dropped by 6%, or US$394 to US$6,127/FEU;
Shanghai-Rotterdam freight rate fell by 5%, or US$420 to US$8,010/FEU;
Shanghai-Genoa freight dropped by 2% to US$8,391/FEU;
The Shanghai-New York freight rate fell 1% to US$9,569/FEU.
Drewry expects freight rates to continue falling in the coming weeks.
In addition, the latest Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) closed at 2400.3 points, down 7.3% from last week. All 21 route freight indices fell, indicating that the market situation continued to be sluggish and the route freight prices accelerated their decline.
The key routes are as follows:
Europe-Europe route: The loading rate of the route is not good, some liner companies continue to reduce prices to solicit cargo, and the market freight rate continues to fall. The freight index for the European route fell by 2.1% from last week; the freight index for the east-west route fell by 10.0% from last week; and the freight index for the east-west route fell by 8.6% from last week.
North American routes: Market demand for freight is limited. Although liner companies have arranged a large number of suspensions, space is still oversupplied, and booking prices in the spot market continue to fall.
Among them, the US-Western route has experienced a significant decline, with the booking price in the spot market only being around US$4,500/FEU. The freight index for the US East Route fell by 4.3% from last week; the freight index for the US West Route fell by 14.0% from last week.
Middle East routes: market conditions continue to be weak, and booking prices in the spot market maintain a downward trend. The Middle East route index fell 13.3% from last week.
Suspended
According to the latest data released by Drewry in this issue, in the next five weeks (weeks 35-39), the world’s three major shipping alliances have canceled a total of 53 voyages.
Among them, THE Alliance canceled 23 voyages; 2M Alliance canceled 22 voyages, and Ocean Alliance canceled 8 voyages.
Among a total of 747 scheduled sailings on major routes such as trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic, Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean, 65 sailings were canceled between week 35 (9.29-10.4) and week 39 (10.26-11.2). The rate is 9%.
According to Drewry data for this period, 55% of empty flights will occur on the eastbound trans-Pacific trade route during this period.
Although demand slows and freight rates fall during the peak season, the market remains at extraordinary levels. The Port of Felixstowe, the UK’s largest container port, is facing severe disruption from the strike.
Some carriers have implemented port hopping to divert goods bound for the UK to other ports in Europe, but the situation at other ports is not much better, and they will also face strikes by the Port of Liverpool and railway workers.
During the critical Halloween and Christmas periods, shippers and BCOs may face delays and associated additional costs.
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