“In the past few days, the sharp fluctuations in the crude oil market were mainly due to the speculation surrounding the geopolitical factors caused by the unrest in Iraq.” Yang An, head of energy and chemical research and development at Haitong Futures, told a reporter from Futures Daily that in hindsight, with the situation in Iraq under control, the situation in Iraq After the National Petroleum Marketing Organization stated that Iraq’s oil export business will not be affected by the “Green Zone” conflict, the pulse of oil prices due to geopolitical events also came to an end, and the market quickly gave up the gains caused by geopolitical premiums.
Du Bingqin, an energy analyst at Everbright Futures, also mentioned that in fact, the fundamentals of the global oil market have not changed much at present. She believes that in addition to the impact of the situation in Iraq, the fluctuations in the crude oil market are also further heightened by expectations that the Federal Reserve will radically raise interest rates in September, and the market is deepening concerns about economic recession and thus dragging down demand. In addition, news about the current negotiations on the Iran nuclear agreement remains an important disturbing factor for international oil prices.
According to Du Bingqin, from the data point of view, various institutions estimate that Iran’s crude oil storage capacity ranges from 60 million barrels to 93 million barrels. “Once the Iran nuclear deal is finally reached, it is expected that Iran will soon release its floating storage reserves and potential production, putting pressure on the supply side of the global oil market. The current negotiations are still at a deadlock, and the outcome of further negotiations in September is still uncertain. At the same time, further attention needs to be paid to whether the OPEC+ meeting on September 5 will reduce production to support oil prices,” she reminded.
In Yang An’s view, the next market focus will be on the European energy crisis and the OPEC meeting in September. It is understood that EU countries led by Germany are preparing to set limits on natural gas prices at the emergency meeting of EU energy ministers on September 9. The soaring energy prices have had a devastating impact on the European economy. Controlling energy prices has become the current need for the EU to respond. priority.
OPEC has been vocal recently to protect oil prices. According to Yang An, in the face of falling oil prices, the Saudi Energy Minister earlier stated that the current oil price performance is increasingly out of touch with fundamentals, which may force OPEC to take action. At present, the market believes that Saudi Arabia stands up to speak in advance on behalf of OPEC this time. It is obviously preparing in advance to offset the negative impact of Iranian oil returning to the market as much as possible. OPEC is obviously unwilling to see a sharp decline in oil prices that would harm its own interests. However, while the global economy is under tremendous pressure, such a decision will not receive support from consuming countries. The decision on production control at the OPEC meeting in September will still have an important impact on the later operation of oil prices.
“Generally speaking, at this stage, the global economy continues to be under pressure and the supply and demand level of the crude oil market is in the accumulation stage. Oil prices have insufficient upward momentum. After the geopolitical speculation has suffered setbacks, market confidence has been hit, and short-term oil prices have been weak and are at a downward trend. We are exploring the stage of seeking support.” Yang An said, but the crude oil market is currently facing uncertain factors such as the Iran nuclear agreement negotiations and OPEC+ follow-up cooperation. Later changes will be more complicated. Oil prices are likely to maintain a range-bound oscillation and see-saw trend, and large fluctuations may occur at any time. .
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