Affected by the weakening of international oil prices for three consecutive days, the polyester sector was dragged down to a certain extent during the week. However, on Friday night, international oil prices closed slightly higher, ending three consecutive days of sharp declines. The main reason was that OPEC+ may discuss production cuts at the September 5 meeting, which led the downstream energy sector to reverse its morning decline.
According to Zhang Weiwei, an energy analyst at New Era Futures, due to the current positive market supply and demand expectations for the polyester sector, the polyester sector may rebound in stages in September, but the overall space is relatively limited. She believes that it is necessary to pay attention to the placement of terminal orders. At the same time, crude oil and macro sentiment will still affect the rhythm of market fluctuations.
Baocheng Futures Research pointed out that from a cost perspective, since OPEC+’s new production cut is more controllable and more likely than whether the Iran nuclear deal can be reached, it is expected that OPEC+’s new production cut logic may become a major contradiction in the short term, and oil prices will be biased in the short term. Strong operation, and in the medium and long term, considering that refined oil consumption will decline after the peak season, the fall in refined oil cracking profits may lead to weaker crude oil demand, and also considering that the overall stance of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve at the annual meeting of global central banks is hawkish , interest rates may be raised significantly in the future to combat inflation, so crude oil prices remain weak in the medium to long term.
From the perspective of demand performance, Zhang Weiwei said that the current demand for polyester is recovering in stages, but the boost is still limited. The main reason is that the impact of power cuts has temporarily come to an end, terminal autumn and winter orders have recovered, and polyester production starts in September are expected to increase. However, the inventory and financial pressure caused by missed sales in the first half of the year will affect the number of subsequent orders. Whether demand will perform well in the later period still requires the efforts of domestic policies.
In terms of varieties, she believes that the supply of PX is relatively tight, and there is support on the cost side; PTA equipment maintenance and load reduction, the supply remains relatively tight, PTA will continue to be destocked in September; some ethylene glycol units are restarted and new units are added After being put into production, domestic supply has recovered, but imports will still remain sluggish. In September, the ethylene glycol port may continue to destock, but the pace of destocking is expected to slow down. Short fiber supply and demand increased, but the trend remained passive.
Looking specifically at PX, Baocheng Futures Research pointed out that due to the short-term domestic device operating rate and import volume remaining low, the overall supply and demand of PX is still tight, and the absolute price of PX may be stronger based on the fluctuation of oil prices. Overall, cost-side support may be stronger in the short term, but there is a possibility of weakening in the medium to long term.
In terms of PTA, the Melya Futures Energy Research Team pointed out that although the sharp drop in oil prices during the week dragged down PTA, the contraction of the upstream PX end and its own PTA supply end made PTA prices strong and the overall processing fee rose to a historically high level. .
From the perspective of supply and demand, they believe that PTA as a whole is still in a state of destocking in September. On the supply side, PTA equipment continued maintenance and shutdowns to reduce loads in September, which continued to support prices. Looking at the demand side, entering September, there are plans to restart some of the early production reduction maintenance equipment, and multiple new equipment are planned to be put into production. This week, the start-up of polyester increased to more than 82%, but the overall downstream demand may have become “not strong in the peak season”. foregone conclusion. Taken together, they believe that the fundamental short-term contradiction between supply and demand of PTA is not big. If the maintenance is fulfilled in September, it will still be destocked. However, the impact on the cost side will be intensified. The sharp drop in oil prices will drag down the trend of PTA. In the case of high PTA processing fees, it is expected that This has put pressure on the main contract prices, but the destocking performance is expected to support recent month prices.
However, in the view of Baocheng Futures, the future performance of polyester will mainly depend on the performance of the weaving process. Considering that the high temperature weather will gradually ease after September, there is a certain expectation that the terminal weaving start-up rate will rebound. At the same time, the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver Ten” is approaching. , the demand for raw materials in the weaving process may improve, so it is expected that the weaving operating rate will pick up in the future, thereby driving up the destocking of polyester. After the destocking of polyester, combined with its relatively good profit performance, the operating rate of polyester may rebound. Therefore, there is a certain expectation of improvement on the demand side in September. Overall, the cost side of PTA will have strong support in the short term, and there are expectations for marginal improvement in supply and demand. It is expected that short-term PTA price performance may be stronger. However, in the medium to long term, PTA maintains bearish expectations in the medium and long term, considering that there are expectations of weakening on the cost side and that new production capacity may be launched in the fourth quarter.
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