“Due to the need for epidemic prevention and control, we have been ‘silent’ at the ginning plant for nearly a month. Taking this opportunity, we have overhauled all ginning machines and supporting cotton harvesting equipment, including those that will be used to store seed cotton in the future. The site has also been cleaned many times.” Teacher Yan, the person in charge of a large cotton ginning factory in Korla City, told the Futures Daily reporter that judging from the phone feedback from the company’s cotton seed sales and field technical service employees distributed throughout Xinjiang, this year The overall growth of cotton in Xinjiang is good. While epidemic prevention and control is being carried out, cotton farmers in various places have not forgotten to pay close attention to field management of cotton’s later growth. With the majority of cotton farmers managing cotton growth well in the later period, the current cotton growth in Xinjiang is better than expected, and cotton yields per unit area and total output are expected to be relatively optimistic.
Information from the Cotton Farmers Branch of the China Cotton Association shows that the country’s cotton planting area this year is 43.467 million acres, and the total output is expected to be approximately 5.92 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In terms of regions, although most of the cotton areas in Xinjiang received less rainfall around July and high temperatures aggravated the occurrence of insect pests, the growth was still better than normal; the cotton areas in the Yellow River Basin were drought-stricken in the early stage, but more rain in the later period alleviated the drought; the cotton areas in the Yangtze River Basin were exposed to high temperatures Drought is detrimental to cotton flowering and boll formation. It is also understood that the country’s total cotton output in 2021 is 5.774 million tons, of which Xinjiang’s output is 5.272 million tons. In the spring of 2022, stimulated by the high purchase price of cotton in 2021, cotton farmers in producing areas are more enthusiastic about planting cotton. For example, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has reached 37.57 million acres, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The current production forecast is relatively optimistic, with the total expected The output was around 5.453 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%.
According to Teacher Yan, defoliant spraying operations have been started in cotton fields in both northern and southern Xinjiang regions, and some cotton fields have been sprayed twice with defoliants. It is expected that small-scale machine mining operations will begin around September 15th, and large-scale machine mining operations will begin on September 20th. In addition, this year, most cotton farmers have selected improved varieties and used satellite navigation for sowing and precise sowing on demand. They have also adopted technologies such as machine-picked wide-film cotton planting, water-saving drip irrigation, and comprehensive pest and disease control, which are beneficial to the cotton peach setting rate and The steady increase in output has also laid a good foundation for improving the total cotton output, machine picking quality and later lint processing quality.
Analysis of the expected weather conditions in Xinjiang’s cotton-producing areas in September is favorable for cotton’s later growth and picking. Information from the Xinjiang Meteorological Service Agency shows that the average temperature in most cotton areas in September is slightly higher or higher than normal, and the total monthly precipitation is slightly lower or lower than normal. The first frost period in Yili Prefecture, Bozhou and other places in northern Xinjiang It is 1 to 8 days earlier, while it is 1 to 9 days later in other areas of northern Xinjiang. The first frost period is 5 to 9 days earlier in Kezhou and Kashgar in southern Xinjiang, and 3 to 12 days later in other areas of southern Xinjiang. On the whole, meteorological conditions are favorable for picking cotton bolls and bolls in most areas.
Teacher Yan told reporters that the current epidemic prevention and control work in some areas of Xinjiang is still relatively tight. Although cotton farmers have begun to pick field cotton and are preparing for the launch of large-scale machine harvesting work, there are currently no new seed cotton trading activities. , most ginners are still taking the time to repair their machines. What is important is that they are trying their best to raise acquisition funds or deposits required for financing. It is expected that the opening time of seed cotton will be delayed, and the opening price will be much lower than last year.
Information released by the Xinjiang Health Commission shows that from 0 to 24:00 on September 5, 4 new local asymptomatic infections were converted into confirmed cases in Xinjiang, and 32 new local asymptomatic infections were confirmed. There are also confirmed cases in some cotton-producing areas. , such as 1 case in Hutubi County, Changji Prefecture, and 5 cases in Korla City, Bazhou Prefecture. From 0 to 24:00 on September 6, there were 2 new confirmed cases from local asymptomatic infections in Xinjiang, 29 local asymptomatic infections in Xinjiang, 1 case in Hutubi County, Changji Prefecture, and 4 cases in Korla City, Ba Prefecture. At a press conference on epidemic prevention and control held by the Information Office of the People’s Government of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region on the evening of September 5, relevant personnel from the supply and marketing cooperatives in the autonomous region stated that since the outbreak of this round of epidemics, the supply and marketing cooperatives and others have made every effort to ensure the smooth flow of important production materials. On the one hand, we are actively selling last year’s cotton stocks, and on the other hand, we have made preparations for this year’s new cotton purchase season. For example, all cotton enterprises in the supply and marketing cooperative system have contacted customers with multiple parties to actively promote cotton sales, and they have also organized the Xinjiang Cotton Association to analyze this year’s cotton market conditions. , timely release information and guide member units to carry out cotton purchase work in an orderly manner, and actively guide member units to prepare for the purchase of new cotton.
However, the current backlog of old cotton across the country and Xinjiang is still relatively large. As new cotton is about to be launched, the market is facing greater sales pressure.
The person in charge of a cotton trading company in Wuhan City, Hubei Province told reporters that the current amount of old cotton carried over to the new cotton year in major parts of the domestic cotton market is estimated to be around 3 million tons, most of which is still concentrated in Xinjiang. Although the current domestic and foreign cotton and The market price difference of its products is huge, but the two markets are relatively “separated”, and domestic cotton stocks are difficult to effectively digest. If Xinjiang’s cotton production increases significantly this year, coupled with the output of mainland cotton, it is conservatively estimated that the new supply will be between 6 million and – 6.5 million tons, and considering that the amount of imported cotton is between 1 million and 1.5 million tons, the total domestic cotton supply in the new year is expected to be between 10 million and 11 million tons, which will be at a historical high, while demand expectations for the same period are still not optimistic. . so, faced with huge inventory and supply, the market has a strong wait-and-see mentality.
“The purchase price of newly produced seed cotton this year is expected to be significantly lower than the previous market expectations, especially the psychological price of cotton farmers. At the same time, it will also show a trend of opening low and moving low.” Some people in the industry believe that as of now, there are still ginners in various parts of Xinjiang. They are worried about collecting payment, repaying loans and preparing funds for new cotton acquisition. Due to excessive inventory of old cotton, a few ginners are expected to take the initiative to reduce the amount of seed cotton acquisition and processing in the new acquisition season, so as to reduce self-raised funds, Financing and other pressures. It is expected that the purchase market of newly produced seed cotton will be more rational. Not only will there be no “rush buying” phenomenon, the market is also worried that the phenomenon of “buying for free” that has not been seen for many years will suddenly appear. In addition, in order to avoid the risk of downward prices, it is estimated that more industrial enterprises will join the ranks of cotton hedging. The market initially predicts that the mainstream purchase price of new seed cotton will be 5.5-6 yuan/kg, and will fall back to 4.5-5.5 yuan/kg later, which is basically the same as the level in 2019.
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