“Recently, due to the local confirmed cases every day, the planned start-up time of most ginning plants is still being postponed. At the same time, it is estimated that the time for new cotton to be put on the market will be delayed compared with last year.” said a veteran cotton processor in Korla City. Zhang told a reporter from Futures Daily that although the price of Zheng cotton futures rose significantly on Thursday and even Friday, the purchase price of hand-picked seed cotton in some areas of southern Xinjiang reached about 7.5 yuan/kg. There is also news in the market that the purchase price of hand-picked seed cotton in the mainland exceeded 8. yuan/kg, but it is estimated that downstream enthusiasm for purchasing cotton and replenishing stocks will still be difficult to boost. The increase in cotton raw materials will result in more “wait-and-see”, and many market entities will learn from last year’s active purchase and hoarding of new cotton before and after it was launched. But in the end, I learned the lesson of the “big bitter melon”. It is expected that cotton picking will begin in Xinjiang in mid-to-early October, and the centralized procurement work of cotton gins will also begin in mid-October.
The maturity period is advanced and the picking period is postponed.
According to Lao Zhang, based on the analysis of the current cotton growth and development in Xinjiang, and taking into account the number of defoliant sprays in cotton fields in various places, the picking period of cotton in Xinjiang this year should be several days earlier than last year, and is estimated to be about 5 days. However, due to the current epidemic still occurring in some areas of Xinjiang, and some areas are still in a “silent” state, combined with the acquisition fund preparations and psychological changes of cotton gins in various places, the peak cotton picking period in Xinjiang this year will be postponed. , will also lead to the postponement of the peak period of new cotton’s centralized listing and acquisition.
“With high accumulated temperature, adequate water and fertilizer supply, and the fact that there are basically no disastrous weather conditions such as strong winds, cooling, and sand dust in various cotton-growing areas in the early stages of cotton growth, it is a foregone conclusion that both the unit yield and the total cotton output in Xinjiang will increase this year, and due to the use of improved varieties, With the improvement of mechanization and other factors, it is expected that the quality of new cotton will be relatively high.” Chang Xinwang, a major cotton grower in Kuitun City, said that the current concern of cotton farmers is that the purchase price offered by ginners will be much lower than last year.
Chang Xinwang said that after spraying three times of defoliant, it will take about a week for all the cotton to flocculate. Although there are still epidemics in many places, cotton farmers are not restricted from going to the fields, as long as they take preventive and control measures. . Picking new cotton started around September 26 last year, but this year it is expected to be postponed to the National Day holiday. The local cotton ginning factory has not yet announced the date when it will start purchasing, and it is difficult to determine whether the opening price will be high or low.
Purchase price of hand-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang “One-day tour”
“Recently, the market has been full of news that the purchase price of hand-picked cotton in some areas of southern Xinjiang has increased from the initial 6.8-7 yuan/kg to about 7.5 yuan/kg. The ‘gloomy’ face finally got a large amount of Chen cotton in his hands. The faces of processors and traders disappeared, and some even expected that the mainstream price when new cotton is launched in large quantities will be relatively high, reaching 7 yuan/kg, but it is estimated that these wishes will eventually come true.” In Xinjiang’s private land farming Shandong cotton merchant Lao Zhou said that when the main contract price of Zheng Cotton reached 15,000 yuan/ton on Thursday, he had already sold 2,000 tons of cotton in advance. The reason for this operation is that he has cotton fields in his hands. After calculating the production cost of lint cotton, he will lock in part of it as long as there is profit. He can no longer make the mistake of “continuously increasing losses while waiting” like last year. He will be safe first. One part is better.
Teacher Wang, the person in charge of a textile company in Aksu City, told reporters that the purchase price of hand-picked cotton in Bachu and other places recently reached 7.8 yuan/kg and only lasted for a short period of time, and there was no substantial increase in downstream demand. The reason for the sudden rise in purchase prices is that cotton processors are rushing to meet orders. It is understood that some institutions from a certain place in Zhejiang have opened 7-8 wadding production lines in Bachu County and its surrounding areas. Due to the downstream deposits collected in advance, coupled with the concentration of new students starting school in early and mid-September, and the sudden increase in demand in Chongqing and other places, , as well as more purchase orders from established institutions, resulting in higher operating rates of these production lines. In order to attract more cotton farmers to pick cotton, some wadding processors have intentionally raised the purchase price. At the same time, the excessive rise in cotton seed prices has also made processors profitable. Properly raising the purchase price can obtain more profits.
The market mentality in the “vacuum period” is complicated
“Currently, there is a short ‘vacuum period’ in both domestic and foreign cotton markets. For example, the U.S. cotton market is waiting for the final implementation of the Fed’s interest rate hike and the final results of output in India and Brazil. The domestic cotton market is waiting for the opening of new cotton prices. and the improvement of downstream demand.” Cotton futures investor Guo Hui told reporters that due to the emergence of the “vacuum period”, coupled with the delay in the launch of new domestic cotton this year and the cautious mentality of ginners, it is difficult to operate in the market. When a clear operating trend is given, the rise and fall of futures and spot cotton prices is mainly determined by market sentiment. At this time, large cotton merchants who have a large amount of old cotton in their hands began to take action.
Guo Hui believes that the reason why the state reserve cotton purchase and storage is difficult to make large-scale transactions is not because there is no cotton in the market, but because most resources are concentrated in the hands of some market entities, and because they have certain strength, they are not like small and medium-sized ginners and traders. Facing greater financial pressure, it can keep cotton prices at a high level before new supply pressure comes by raising prices and reluctant to sell. It can also reduce losses and financial pressure by selling off part of its inventory. It can hold it for a day. Calculate the psychology of one day, I don’t want to convert the huge losses formed last year from virtual accounts to real accounts as soon as possible, but I estimate that it will eventually end up with the result that “the paper can’t contain the fire”, it is better to take more rational measures now while the market still has better opportunities. business strategy.
Shandong cotton merchant Lao Zhou said that from the analysis of the internal and external environment and development trend of the domestic cotton market, the destocking of the cotton market will be a relatively long process. It is still difficult to find bright spots in the current market demand. For example, some pure cotton textile companies in Henan have stopped production. , the consumption demand of the entire downstream industry is continuously downgrading. At the same time, the supply of domestic old cotton plus new cotton in the new year will be as high as 10 million tons, which may cause a sudden and sharp decline in prices after the new cotton comes on the market.
“So far, the relevant agencies in Xinjiang have announced the current operating status of the ginning plants. After the new cotton is launched this year, although the number of ginning plants has decreased compared with last year, because the total production capacity is still relatively large, some professionals predict that’ The phenomenon of “panic buying” will still appear.” In this regard, Shandong cotton merchant Lao Zhou believes that “remember to eat but not to fight” ginning plants definitely exist, but they will not become the mainstream of the market. Faced with the current situation of “sparse” downstream orders, “panic buying” Just some people’s dreams.
Wang Liang, an agricultural product futures investor in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, said that at present, there is still a large price difference in the domestic and foreign cotton markets, and some investors are still buying Zheng cotton and selling US cotton. At the same time, some early investors who entered the market when the price difference between the two was only 2,000-3,000 yuan/ton have also made profits through later positions addition operations. Currently, facing the possible rapid downward risk of Zheng cotton, As well as the weakening trend of US cotton, it is estimated that some investors will close their long positions in Zheng cotton on the eve of the listing of new cotton.
“Xinjiang’s cotton output currently accounts for about 90% of my country’s total output. When new cotton is not on the market, there are many market variables. It is not recommended that you chase more before there is no substantial improvement in downstream demand.” Lao Zhou, a Shandong cotton merchant He said that it is estimated that the mainstream opening price of new cotton will be 5.5-6 yuan/kg, and will then run smoothly or drop steadily.
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