The EU’s ban on Russian crude oil will officially take effect on December 5, but at present, it seems that Europe’s imports of Russian crude oil are only weakening rather than completely stopping. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than 200 days. So what changes have occurred in the crude oil trade between the EU and Russia under this background?
Data source: Kpler
It can be seen that since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe’s imports of Russian crude oil have indeed declined significantly. In the past three years, Russian crude oil accounted for more than 30% of Europe’s total imports, and it exceeded 29% in January this year. , and the current proportion has dropped to about 20%. Although the proportion has declined, Europe currently imports Russian oil at more than 2.1 million barrels per day. According to the EU embargo plan, all seaborne Russian oil will be embargoed by the end of the year, except for some pipelines. There are only 2 months left before the embargo takes effect. For more than a month, we are facing greater difficulties in landing.
Data source: Kpler
As can be seen from the above figure, although Europe intends to reduce its purchases of Russian oil, the reduction represented by Urals basically flows to Asia. Asian buyers and European buyers have actually completed the exchange of Russian oil and other resources. , Russian crude oil demand has not declined significantly, and seaborne exports remain stable.
Data source: Kpler
It can be seen that since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the purchase of Russian oil by China and India has been rising rapidly. As of August this year, the proportion of Russian oil imported by China and India has reached close to 92% of Asia’s total imports. In January this amount A proportion of only 60%.
Data source: Russian Ministry of Energy, Longzhong Information
In terms of Russian production, due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russian officials have stopped publishing production data after March. According to speeches by Russian officials and assessment data from other channels, Russia’s crude oil output has not declined significantly this year, and is now basically stable at a level above 10 million barrels per day.
Therefore, although Western sanctions against Russia have been advancing, the production and export volume of Russian crude oil have not declined significantly compared with before the conflict, and the relatively stable performance is significantly better than expected. If the EU really strictly implements the ban in December, it will face a crude oil gap of about 2 million barrels per day. Coupled with the problem of insufficient natural gas supply after the weather turns colder, Europe will still face the problem of gas and oil shortage this winter, and energy supply risks cannot be ignored. For Europe, if the ban on Iranian crude oil can be lifted in the future, its increase of 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day will be an effective measure to alleviate energy problems.
In addition, crude oil prices rose sharply after October last year, and the surge in natural gas prices in Europe was the main reason. However, this potential benefit to oil prices may still exist this year. If the crude oil ban is strictly implemented, it will add weight. Therefore, for oil prices, under the background that the situation between Russia and Ukraine is difficult to ease, we need to beware of upward risks after October.
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