Recently, under the leadership of international oil prices, polyester filament POY has experienced a continuous “four consecutive rises” and has a further upward trend. Although the market has speculated that the rising momentum of polyester filament yarns may continue to move forward after the holiday, they never expected that polyester manufacturers are so “bullish” and will continue to rise as soon as they start to rise.
At the critical moment, on the 8th, international crude oil ushered in its fifth day of rise, and this time the magnitude was even greater than in the past. WTI crude oil rose by more than 5.17%, breaking through the $90 mark, and Brent crude oil futures 12 contracts rose by 4.27%. to 98.45 US dollars, an increase of nearly 15 US dollars in just one week, and it is heading directly towards 100 US dollars!
Skyrocketing oil prices
Will bring violent fluctuations to the polyester and textile markets in October
The price of upstream raw materials has continued to rise steadily, and the profit range of chemical fiber factories has shrunk. In order to ensure a certain profit margin, the cost of polyester-related products must be transferred to ensure the normal operation of the production line! In the short term, the price of polyester products may be indirectly driven up by oil prices. For downstream weaving companies, there is stocking before the holiday but raw material inventory is still low. After the holiday, there may be a wave of stocking in the market due to factors such as buying up rather than buying down after the holiday. . For people in the polyester industry, taking this opportunity, whether polyester can take the opportunity to get rid of the high inventory situation has become the focus of many people’s attention!
However, in the editor’s opinion, the sharp decline in the early period and the sharp increase during the National Day will definitely bring violent fluctuations to the polyester and textile markets in October. From the perspective of crude oil, after the holidays, concerns about the sharp shrinkage of energy demand in Europe will once again plague the international oil market. At the same time, in order to cope with excessively high oil prices, the United States will continue to appropriately release strategic oil reserves and decide to provide 10 million to the market next month. barrels of oil. On October 5, local time, the White House issued a statement. By then, oil prices will face a major drop again.
Downstream follow-up orders are generally limited
It is difficult to change the current weak terminal situation
At the same time, considering that the overall economic situation this year is on the tight side, subsequent orders are generally limited, making it difficult to improve the current weak terminal situation. After entering October, the downstream filament weaving market has entered the “Silver Ten” period in the traditional peak season. Although the operating rate of some factories has gradually increased, according to surveys, the start-up and market transactions of the weaving market this year have not improved compared with previous years. In previous years, Double Eleven orders gradually weakened as the number of electronic sales channels increased, and the winter orders received in the previous period were gradually delivered. Then there was a gap in the connection of new orders. During the National Day holiday that just passed, considering that the end-use textile and clothing market was weak, most downstream weaving users arranged their vacation time around 3-5 days.
For water-jet looms, the average operating rate is 67.60%. Current terminal orders are mostly maintained until mid-to-late October. Therefore, most weaving manufacturers’ machines are running smoothly, while a few manufacturers have few orders. At present, the inventory level of finished products of weaving manufacturers is higher than that of the same period in previous years. Therefore, manufacturers are not very willing to stock up before the holidays and are currently focusing on digesting inventory. After the holiday, appropriate amount of replenishment will be considered based on order status and raw material prices.
For air-jet looms, the average operating rate is 50.00%. At present, the profit of gray fabrics is relatively poor. Weaving mills have few orders and high inventories. Some weaving mills have gone on vacation ahead of schedule and their production starts have declined.
For circular knitting machines, the average operating rate is 47.40%. Some larger factories reported that current orders can be maintained until the end of October, with domestic trade orders being the main focus. Most reported that the market is still dominated by small orders, and the order differentiation is still obvious. Up to now, domestic “Double 11” orders have not been communicated. Coupled with the impact of the appreciation of the US dollar, the progress of overseas orders has been slow. It is difficult for the market to hold optimistic expectations in October. In terms of current orders, Foshan circular knitting machine orders have fallen slightly compared with the previous period. The market Delivery of orders is the main focus, and rigid orders in some markets remain the same. In terms of export sales, the overall market performance is relatively average, and there is no obvious positive driver for the market.
For warp knitting machines, the average operating rate was 56.17%. The “Golden Nine” did not arrive as expected, and the “Silver Ten” may not be able to conceal the weak trend. Recently, upstream textile raw materials have received large-volume discounts, and some downstream users just need to purchase small quantities. Looking at October, the order volume is still on the low side. The inventory of finished products in terminal textile and clothing has been at a high level in the past two years. Therefore, the first choice is to consume inventory. Downstream users are cautious and have low enthusiasm for raw material stocking. In the future, it will be difficult to improve the market in a short period of time. This year, small order and bulk order production will be maintained as the main line.
The Golden Nine has passed, but the Silver Ten is still expected. Risks in the external market have deepened sharply; the domestic textile market is still tepid; with the passing of the National Day holiday, the textile market will gradually return to normal today. Judging from the current situation, it is not appropriate to rely too much on increased orders to bring performance growth. , companies need to rationally adjust their variety structure to cope with market fluctuations in October.
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