The dramatic cooling during the National Day Golden Week that just passed was impressive. Now, a new round of cold air is sweeping in again. The “cold wave” is coming, cooling the body and warming the market. Relevant data shows that during the National Day, the sales of heaters increased by 123% month-on-month, the sales of autumn clothes and long trousers increased by 125.64% month-on-month, the sales of fleece pants and woolen hats both exceeded 100%, and the sales of down jackets increased by more than 140% month-on-month. When the cold wave meets seasonal consumption, can “Double Eleven” generate seasonal consumption orders? Is this year’s “Silver Ten” special in the polyester market?
Low temperature weather has limited impact on polyester consumption
“On the first day of National Day in Beijing, we went out in summer clothes. After that, it rained continuously, and in the second half of the day, it was already winter clothes.” Interviewees bluntly said that the sudden cooling of the weather has increased the demand for cold-resistant clothing.
A reporter from Futures Daily learned that after the National Day holiday, as the temperature dropped rapidly in various regions of the country, the demand for warm and cold-proof items increased significantly.
In this regard, Zhu Yaqiong, a polyester analyst at Longzhong Information, said that clothing consumption has rapidly shifted from summer and autumn clothing to winter warm-keeping and velvet consumption. In terms of fabrics, hanging samples of autumn and winter women’s clothing fabrics have partially increased, and fashion-type knitted fabrics and knitted underwear have increased. Fabric orders have increased. It mainly focuses on brushed thermal underwear, velvet thermal jackets, and windproof and cold-proof sports thermal clothing.
“The sudden drop in temperature has stimulated the release of demand for warm and cold-proof items, and the demand for clothing has also been released. I and my colleagues and friends have recently made purchases, but these needs are actually rigid needs. However, if the temperature had not dropped sharply, it might have been It will be released a little later,” said Wang Weifei, senior analyst at Huarui Information.
“From the perspective of clothing consumer groups, generally speaking, adults can wear last year’s clothes directly. Whether to update or not depends on personal wishes. In comparison, children’s clothing updates are more due to height growth, and their rigid needs may be more obvious than for adults. “Pang Chunyan, analyst at SDIC Essence Futures, said.
The reporter learned that polyester consumption has always had a seasonal peak season of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”. However, compared with previous years, the market performance of this year’s “Golden Nine” consumption season was average, mainly due to the decline in demand in Europe due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sales of polyester companies. This year, downstream customers generally report that demand is lower than in the same period in previous years.
A report from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textile Products shows that in August, my country’s exports to the United States experienced a large decline, the growth rate of exports to the EU slowed down significantly, and exports to Japan and ASEAN grew rapidly.
“Since the second quarter of this year, China’s exports to the United States have maintained a growth rate of more than 20% in a single month. In August, exports to the United States turned from increase to decrease, with a decrease of 11.1%. Exports to the EU in August grew by only 5.4%, compared with The 30.4% growth rate last month slowed down significantly. Exports to ASEAN have maintained rapid growth this year, with an increase of 35.7% in August, much higher than the average growth rate. Exports to Japan began to turn from negative to positive in the second quarter of this year, and the growth rate gradually increased. In August Growth of 13.8%.” Chen Sheng, an analyst at Guomao Futures, said that as the weather in the northern hemisphere turned colder in October, export orders for domestic down jackets increased a lot, and sales of thermal products showed an upward trend, especially for clothing made of environmentally friendly materials, which saw strong demand. The domestic comprehensive orders index also rose to 48 from 42 in late September, indicating a significant recovery in orders.
“Coming into October, according to factory surveys and other conditions, recent orders have substantially improved. The processing profits of raw material varieties such as pure polyester, polyester cotton and other varieties have recovered significantly, indicating that real downstream demand has begun.” Chen Sheng said, This year, the demand for velvet fabrics has been outstanding. Orders for thermal insulation products are preferred over other varieties. The colder weather has significantly boosted the demand for textile clothing.
“Although the terminal sales situation has improved and even some products have experienced booming sales, the feedback to the upstream weaving-polyester industry has not seen a substantial improvement. According to Longzhong’s research, in the Shengze market, the post-holiday courage Fabrics such as cloth, four-way stretch, and jacket fabrics are improving, but they are not popular,” Zhu Yaqiong said.
In Wang Weifei’s view, despite the sharp drop in temperatures during the National Day holiday, it is still uncertain whether this year will be a cold or warm winter. The China Meteorological Administration said that it is not yet able to issue relevant forecasts, and it is unlikely that low-temperature weather will significantly drive polyester consumption. However, orders in winter will be affected by the cooling, and there will be a certain advance, as the orders for warm and cold-proof items have increased recently.
The quality of “Silver Ten” has slightly improved, but terminal demand is still expected
In the current polyester market, in addition to the impact of cooling on market demand, the upcoming “Double Eleven” and “Double Twelve” events have also become an important factor in driving market consumption.
In fact, winter orders are not only related to the season, but also to the consumption rhythm and habits in recent years. More and more e-commerce platform activities have led to a lot of order advance, the most obvious of which are the “Double Eleven” and “Double Twelve” activities.
In this regard, Chen Sheng said that “Double Eleven” and “Double Twelve” have become important festivals to drive consumption. As a consumer, placing orders during these two festivals can obtain greater promotional discounts and effectively stimulate consumer desire. and enthusiasm. “Double Eleven” and “Double Twelve” are important nodes for factories and traders to clear inventory and collect payments at the end of the year, and they are often big events.�Reducing prices to give consumers discounts.
At present, the “Double Eleven” pre-sale is about to start. Will the polyester industry chain usher in a wave of orders?
In this regard, Pang Chunyan believes that there may be individual popular orders, but she does not have too optimistic expectations for the sales of overall textile and apparel products.
“Based on previous years, the peak season for sales of finished products in winter is mostly from October to before the Spring Festival, and the peak season for winter orders received by manufacturers is mostly in June, July, and August. Therefore, in October, most e-commerce platforms begin to divide the market share. , selling discounts in advance to encourage residents to actively place orders for purchases.” Zhu Yaqiong said.
It is worth noting that in previous years, there were huge discounts on “Double Eleven” and “Double Twelve”, and most residents chose this time to focus on purchasing. However, with the increasing number of online live sales platforms, the traditional market share has been divided.
“Nowadays, the market is no longer limited to the ‘Double Eleven’ and ‘Double Twelve’ activities. At the same time, the inventory of finished clothing and home textiles in autumn and winter is high. Off-season sales have entered everyone’s field of vision early in the summer, and the consumption limit has been overdrawn in advance. Looking forward to the follow-up , the influence of the ‘Double Eleven’ and ‘Double Twelve’ activities is gradually weakening.” Zhu Yaqiong said.
According to market participants, in recent years, the order volume of traditional offline sales models in the field of clothing and home textiles has gradually shrunk, while online sales, especially on live broadcast platforms, have been increasing day by day. This year’s “Double Eleven” orders seem a bit deserted.
“On the one hand, affected by macro factors, the current market demand has decreased; on the other hand, with the rise of live broadcast platforms and frequent promotional activities in recent years, more and more consumers believe that the discounts of the ‘Double Eleven’ event are not as good as usual, so Expectations for early consumption have declined, and merchants’ Double Eleven discounts have also declined compared with the previous period. This year’s Double Eleven pre-sales may not be as expected.” Zhu Yaqiong said.
“As far as this year’s peak season is concerned, we can see from September, which has ended, that the month-on-month improvement has been stable and there has been no unexpected growth. ‘Silver Ten’ has a ‘Double Eleven’ e-commerce sales window and the weather has cooled down. To support, there have been short-term urgent orders in previous years. However, this year, the inventories of downstream companies are generally high. If there are orders, high inventories will also play a buffering role, so we are cautiously optimistic about the benefits of the raw material market.” Pang Chunyan said.
The reporter learned that the current operating rate of polyester has slowly rebounded to around 84% after falling to a low of 76.8% in mid-July. Domestic sales orders have improved month-on-month. However, due to the lack of improvement in home textiles and the gradual weakening of external demand, the overall situation is still weak. In previous years, terminal inventory was slowly depleted.
“The start-up rate of the terminal weaving industry during this year’s ‘Silver Ten’ is better than the same period in 2021, but weaker than the same period in 2020. There are still certain expectations for the terminal demand in the later period of the market, such as the earlier cold weather driving the consumption of cold-proof clothing and the European energy crisis Boost export growth of thermal insulation products.” Zhu Yaqiong said.
Pang Chunyan also believes that in the later period, the market needs to focus on the support of winter orders for demand under the expectation of a cold winter. In her view, with peak season demand in the fourth quarter coming to an end and the risk of cost-side fluctuations intensifying, the main goal of chemical fiber companies will still be to actively promote shipments and reduce inventory.
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