Another 2.5 million-ton PTA device is about to be officially put into production! Private polyester leaders are leading the second round of PTA rapid expansion cycle.
Weilian Chemical’s 2.5 million tons/year PTA project plans to be officially put into operation in October
At the end of August, the main unit of Dongying Weilian Chemical’s 2.5 million tons/year PTA project was successfully delivered, and the project entered the stage of preparation for joint commissioning and production operation.
As the only “chain owner” enterprise in the “PX-PTA-polyester” industrial chain of high-end chemical industry in Shandong Province, the first phase of the 2 million tons/year PX project of Dongying Weilian Chemical Co., Ltd. was successfully handed over on July 27. The 2.5 million tons/year PTA and supporting engineering project separated by a wall was successfully handed over on August 18. Qilu Evening News reported at the end of August that in October this year, Dongying Weilian Chemical’s 2 million tons of PX and 2.5 million tons/year PTA and supporting projects will be officially put into operation.
Weilian Chemical’s new 2.5 million-ton unit is scheduled to be put into operation, which will significantly increase the overall supply of PTA. Judging from the current market situation, after the National Day, the PTA market showed a good start on the first day, and then the market fell sharply. PTA’s main contract 2301 fell from 5,700 yuan to 5,350 yuan, a drop of up to 6.14%; however, the recent weather and epidemic have affected transportation and shipping, suppliers’ spot offers have risen cautiously, and the basis has rebounded. The current downstream polyester demand has not improved significantly. Just need to buy to follow up, the market trading situation is average. In the short term, fluctuations in the crude oil market have provided some support to PTA, but as PTA’s own new equipment is expected to be put into production, supply and demand have gradually weakened.
Private polyester leaders are leading the second round of PTA rapid expansion cycle
Beginning in 2020, PTA has entered the second round of rapid capacity expansion cycle in history. The average annual new production capacity of PTA from 2020 to 2021 is 8.3 million tons. It is estimated that the new PTA production capacity in 2022 will be 8.3 million tons (based on the production in Shandong and Jiangsu) 2.5 million tons), it is estimated that the new PTA production capacity in 2023-2024 will be 12-13.7 million tons, breaking the previous high and setting a new historical record. The proportion of production capacity of private PTA companies in my country has also increased from 55% in 2011 to 78% in 2021, and private polyester companies have become the main force in the PTA industry.
A total of 10 new PTA production capacities are planned to be put into operation and planned from 2023 to 2025, with a total production capacity of 33.7 million tons. Overall, with the exception of Pan Asia Petrochemicals, the other nine companies are expansions of existing companies. This shows that the industry is relatively mature and competitive, with the number of new companies accounting for 10% of the total. In addition, according to the company structure, the parent companies that have added PTA production capacity all have upstream and downstream industry chain supporting facilities. For example, the parent companies of Hengli, Honggang, and Tongkun all own PX-PTA-polyester, Hailun Petrochemical, Yizheng Chemical Fiber, and Du The parent companies of Shandong Energy, Pan Asia Petrochemical, and Hainan Yisheng all have PTA-polyester supporting facilities, and Fuhai Chuang has PX-PTA supporting facilities. Under the integrated competition pattern of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, companies focus on the in-depth development of the industrial chain and improve the upstream and downstream Comprehensive Competitiveness.
From 2023 to 2025, the capacity expansion of the downstream polyester industry will mostly be dominated by leading polyester companies. The capacity expansion of leading industry companies will be large-scale, while the proportion of new production capacity of other small and medium-sized enterprises will be relatively small. Against the background that CR3 accounts for more than 30% of the current industrial chain structure, it is certain that the new production capacity of leading enterprises will be put into operation. It is estimated that the proportion of domestic polyester CR3 production capacity will rise to about 40% after 2025. The right to speak has been further improved, while the right to speak of small and medium-sized polyester companies is still limited.
In the next few years, PX-PTA-polyester capacity expansion will mainly focus on the capacity expansion of the main suppliers of the existing industry. There is a strong certainty that new production capacity will be put into production. The main suppliers’ industrial supporting facilities will be more complete and their comprehensive competitiveness will be stronger. It is estimated that the proportion of domestic PTA production capacity without upstream and downstream supporting equipment will drop from 14% in 2021 to 9% in 2026. The oligopoly structure of the industry has been strengthened. The integrated competitiveness of the entire industry chain of leading domestic enterprises is strong, and the cost advantage of new domestic production capacity is obvious. However, the number of newly added large-scale installations abroad is limited. The comprehensive competitiveness and voice of my country’s polyester industry will continue The increase will help my country’s PX imports decline and PTA and polyester exports reach new highs. In addition, the rapid expansion of my country’s polyester industry will accelerate the survival of the fittest in some backward production capacities and promote the production capacity upgrade of the entire polyester industry chain.
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