Since this year, the price of nylon 66 slices has been falling. By August, the market price fell below 18,000 yuan, which caused domestic traders and downstream customers to enter the market to buy the bottom. It rebounded to 25,500-26,000 yuan/ton. After entering October, the market price entered again. In a weak market, the market is still facing downward pressure, mainly in the following aspects.
Increased supply, sluggish demand
This year, both the raw material adiponitrile and hexamethylenediamine, as well as the production capacity of nylon 66 chips have increased. In addition to Huafeng’s 100,000 tons of new production capacity being put into operation, China Chemical’s 300,000 tons/year adiponitrile unit has been delayed, and the specific time is to be determined. Invista’s 400,000 tons/year unit in Shanghai is currently expected to be released in November. Of course, there are still uncertainties. Ningxia Ruitai’s 20,000 tons/year hexamethylenediamine plant will be put into operation in the first half of this year. Regardless of whether these plants are operating normally or at full capacity, it is a fact that the supply will increase due to increased production capacity. In terms of nylon 66 chips, Ruitai added 40,000 tons, Huafeng added 100,000 tons, and Polymer added 5,000 tons, indicating an increase in supply.
From the perspective of import and export, the import volume of adiponitrile has increased significantly compared with the same period last year, with an increase of approximately 34,000 tons. The import volume of hexamethylenediamine has decreased by approximately 22,000 tons, so the supply of raw materials has increased slightly compared with last year. Judging from the import and export of nylon 66 chips, imports fell by 43,000 tons, exports fell by about 3,000 tons, and net imports of nylon 66 chips dropped by about 40,000 tons.
From the perspective of demand, the overall demand situation in the plastics market this year is average, and there are no bright spots in the market. Whether it is automobiles or home appliances, the demand situation in the textile field is also average.
The price difference between and nylon 6 slices is still large, and the price difference in the future
There is a possibility of shrinkage
At present, the price difference between nylon 66 and nylon 6 is more than 10,000 yuan/ton. According to the mean regression theory, as the raw material bottleneck is solved, it is normal for the price difference to return to 5,000 yuan/ton. In the future, as the scale of nylon 66 expands, nylon 66 will no longer It is a product in short supply, so the price difference may be even lower.
Production capacity continues to expand, and the golden profit cycle has passed
Judging from the published statistics of new adiponitrile and nylon 66 chip projects, the domestic production capacity of adiponitrile will exceed 4 million tons in the future (assuming that these projects can be put into production), and the production capacity of nylon 66 will exceed 7 million tons. With the production capacity From the perspective of a product’s cycle, the golden cycle of profit has passed, and it will inevitably enter a state of profit or even loss in the future, unless of course the product can develop new uses.
Overall, in the current general environment, although nylon 66 has now entered a profitable state, the market is still under great pressure. The good market conditions in the future may be short-term problems caused by factors such as a certain device not being put into production as scheduled or an accident. Market conditions, the high-profit era of nylon 66 will be gone forever.
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