Since 2022, faced with complex and severe domestic and international situations and the impact of multiple factors, the chemical fiber industry has been operating under pressure. Under the pressure of high inventory and weak demand, the average operating load of the chemical fiber industry has dropped significantly compared with 2021, and at the same time, the pressure on industry profitability is more prominent. Looking forward to the whole year, various uncertain factors still exist. However, under the general tone of the central government’s economic work of “seeking progress while maintaining stability”, the overall operating environment of the textile and chemical fiber industry will tend to be stable, and there is limited room for the production and operation of the chemical fiber industry to continue to decline.
1. Basic situation of industry operation
(1) Production and sales situation
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, chemical fiber output from January to September 2022 was 33.67 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.32%, and the decline was 0.84 percentage points narrower than that from January to August.
Judging from the industry’s operating load and inventory, since 2022, the overall operating load of the chemical fiber industry has been weaker than the same period last year, production and sales pressure has increased, and some product inventories have remained high. The industry’s operating rate experienced two significant declines. One was in March and April, when sporadic epidemics occurred in many places, especially in Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta region, which had a greater impact, mainly reflected in the demand for logistics, transportation and internal circulation consumption; In July and August, during the traditional off-season, faced with the pressure of high inventory and weak demand, coupled with high-temperature power cuts in some areas, the operating rate of the chemical fiber industry once again dropped significantly.
Since September, we have entered the traditional peak season of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”. At the same time, the high temperature has gradually faded, power restriction measures have been relaxed and canceled, downstream demand has improved, the overall operating rate of the chemical fiber industry has rebounded, and inventories have declined. As of the end of October, the average load of the direct-spinning polyester filament industry was about 73%, 4 percentage points higher than that in August. The inventory dropped slightly from August but there was no substantial improvement; the average load of the nylon industry reached 75%, which was lower than that in August. Points rebounded by 13 points, and the average load of the spandex industry reached 83%, which was more than 30 points higher than the low point in August. At the same time, inventory also dropped significantly, but it was still at a high level.
(2) Market price
Since the beginning of this year, high and sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices have seriously dragged down the chemical fiber market. In the first half of the year, crude oil prices fluctuated and rose, with a maximum increase of more than 60%, which significantly increased the raw material and energy costs of the chemical fiber industry, squeezed corporate profits and occupied a large amount of working capital; in the third quarter, crude oil prices fell rapidly, once falling back to the level at the beginning of the year. Although the company’s raw material costs have been significantly reduced, the chemical fiber market has lost support, and product prices have continued to fall, making sales more difficult. At the same time, inventory depreciation has also seriously eroded the company’s profits. Analyzing polyester, which accounts for the largest proportion, the increase in fiber prices is much smaller than the increase in raw material PTA. Therefore, although the price has increased, the benefits have been severely compressed.
(3) Import and export situation
According to China Customs statistics, the total import volume of major chemical fiber products from January to September decreased by 39.97% year-on-year; exports increased by 8.90% year-on-year, 1.6 percentage points higher than the average annual growth rate (7.3%) since the “13th Five-Year Plan” (2015) , under this difficult situation in 2022, the growth of chemical fiber exports reflects the increase in international market demand and the improvement of the competitiveness of my country’s chemical fiber products. In addition, the export performance of polyester bottle flakes has been outstanding in the past two years. In 2021, export volume increased by 36% year-on-year. From January to September 2022, it continued to increase significantly by 54.18%, an increase of 9.18 percentage points compared with January to June.
(4) Terminal market
In the third quarter, as the country’s policy of stabilizing growth and promoting consumption took effect, domestic sales of textiles and clothing showed an improvement trend, and the indicator growth rate has gradually picked up since June. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first three quarters, retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles above designated size in my country decreased by 4% year-on-year, and the decline was 2.5 percentage points narrower than in the first half of the year. Online retail channels have maintained steady growth. In the first three quarters, national online retail sales of clothing products increased by 4.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated by 2.3 percentage points from the first half of the year.
In terms of external demand, the export growth of the textile industry is good, and the total export volume has reached a record high. China Customs data shows that my country’s textile and apparel exports totaled US$248.35 billion in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and the growth rate was 3.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Among the major categories of products, the export value of textiles was US$114.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; the export value of clothing was US$134.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. Among the main export markets, my country’s textile and services products are exported to the United States, the European Union, and Japan.�The export volume increased by 2.4%, 9.5% and 2% respectively year-on-year, and the export volume to markets along the “Belt and Road” and RCEP trading partner countries increased by 17.7% and 15.6% year-on-year respectively.
(5) Economic benefits
Since 2022, the economic operation of the chemical fiber industry has been under great pressure. At the same time, due to the high base in 2021, the economic benefit indicators have dropped significantly year-on-year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the operating income of the chemical fiber industry from January to September was 810.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.69%; operating costs increased by 13.64% year-on-year, 5.95 percentage points higher than the revenue growth; total profits were 17.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63.42% ; The revenue profit margin was 2.18%; the industry’s loss rate reached 35.09%, and the loss of loss-making enterprises increased significantly by 144.91% year-on-year.
(6) Fixed asset investment
Fixed asset investment in the chemical fiber industry has grown steadily. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, fixed asset investment in the chemical fiber industry increased by 32.0% year-on-year from January to September, which is basically the same as the full-year growth rate in 2021. The new production capacity is still dominated by leading companies.
2. Outlook for 2022
From the cost side, international oil prices have returned to the level at the beginning of the year at the end of September, but are still running at a high level compared with previous years. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, under the background of economic downturn and deepening inflation, international oil prices will remain unchanged. The possibility of sideways fluctuations is high, and the amplitude of fluctuations will be weaker than in the first three quarters, which is conducive to the smooth operation of the chemical fiber market.
From the demand side, although the constraints caused by the epidemic such as restricted consumption scenarios and lack of consumer confidence are difficult to completely eliminate in the short term, in the face of repeated epidemics, China’s economy has stabilized and rebounded in a relatively short period of time, demonstrating strong resilience and huge potential. potential. The State Council executive meeting on October 26 injected another shot in the arm to stabilize economic growth. The meeting deployed the continued implementation of a package of policies and follow-up measures to stabilize the economy to promote further economic stability and upward growth. As positive factors accumulate and increase, it will help the textile industry further smoothen the industrial chain cycle based on domestic demand and strengthen confidence in the development of the industry.
Looking forward to the whole year, it is expected that the operating pressure of the chemical fiber industry will still be high, but as the further implementation of policy measures becomes effective, it will bring more positive impacts to the smooth operation of the chemical fiber industry. Judging from the full-year data, chemical fiber output is expected to be roughly the same as last year; the operating income of the chemical fiber industry is still expected to show positive growth year-on-year, and the overall profit level is expected to improve compared with the first three quarters.
my country’s new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country has begun. The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was successfully held, providing an action guide for the high-quality development of the textile industry. The chemical fiber industry is the core support for the stable development and continuous innovation of the textile industry chain, an internationally competitive industry, and an important part of the new materials industry. The high-quality development of the industry resonates with the Chinese dream, the dream of rejuvenation, and the dream of a strong country. It is a Chinese-style modernization Key players and practitioners.
On the road to high-quality development of the chemical fiber industry, every enterprise is indispensable. Under the current complex and severe domestic and international situation, enterprises must strengthen their confidence, prevent risks and cultivate internal strength, and contribute positive forces to the smooth operation of the industry.
</p
