Fundamentals: Rising costs, reduced supply and demand, and compressed labor costs
Judging from market trends, since the beginning of November, the price of PX has been +22.33, to 986.33; the price of PTA has been +70, to 5655; the price of polyester filament has been -25, to 6875. Judging from the profit trend, the PX spread was +25.7, to 296.7; PTA profit was -76.90, to -338.78; polyester filament profit was -97.25, to -486.71.
Load expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, tight crude oil supply coupled with the geopolitical crisis, and improved macroeconomic expectations have boosted the market. The reduction of PX internal and external equipment and the postponement of new capacity expansion have driven up market prices, and PXN has gradually recovered; PTA equipment maintenance has increased, driving supply and demand. With month-on-month improvement, superimposed costs and suppliers raising prices, market prices are also strengthening, but profits are in the negative range and losses are widening; polyester filament is attributed to high inventory and profit losses, and promotions are difficult to stimulate the industry to destock. The market Price losses are increasing amid weakness.
Industrial load: Capacity utilization rates have declined
As of November 10, compared with the beginning of the month, PX, PTA, polyester, and weaving loads fell by 5.31%, 0.33%, 4.66%, and 3.07% respectively to 72.56%, 73.21%, 78.23%, and 58.26%. On the whole, the backend environment is weak, social inventories continue to be high, scattered epidemics restrict consumption, downstream negative feedback continues to heat up, and the superimposed industrial chain deficit pressure is severe. The polyester and weaving sectors have experienced significant declines, with leading companies taking the lead in driving the decline.
Taken together, the sustainability of the short-term macro bullishness remains to be seen. As the industry expands and the environment weakens, the reduction in polyester and weaving prices will further decline, which will continue to inhibit the market rebound. The market is expected to be short and long.
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