“So far, our company has purchased nearly 25,000 tons of seed cotton, which is nearly 5,000 tons more than the purchase volume in 2021 and about 20 million tons higher than the purchase volume in 2020. The company is currently producing lint cotton at full capacity, basically all Workers are working together to seize the time to process.” Yan Youfa, general manager of Xinjiang Meifang Cotton Industry Co., Ltd., told the Futures Daily reporter that since mid-November, Xinjiang’s seed cotton harvesting has gradually come to an end, and the market has begun to enter the market where cotton farmers are concentrated on selling seed cotton, and the start-up of ginning plants has reached At the peak stage, the mainstream purchase price of seed cotton and the processing cost of lint cotton have been determined, a bumper harvest is a foregone conclusion, and the market operation is relatively stable.
According to the reporter’s understanding, although the picking, lint processing and listing of new seed cotton nationwide have been delayed this year, and logistics have been affected to a certain extent, all new cotton has been harvested and harvested. At present, the progress of seed cotton sales by Xinjiang cotton farmers is 70%-90%, and the mainstream price of seed cotton purchase market is stable at 5.5-5.9 yuan/kg. It is expected that all Xinjiang cotton farmers will basically complete the seed cotton sales from the end of November to the beginning of December. The current market focus Focus on lint processing and sales.
“Faced with the market situation of sufficient new supply of seed cotton and relatively sluggish downstream demand for lint cotton, most ginners this year formulate seed cotton acquisition and lint processing plans based on futures prices. This makes this year’s new cotton market operation situation different from that of Zhengzhou. The cotton futures market is relatively closely integrated.” Wang Jianjie, a cotton trader in Hengshui City, Hebei Province, told reporters that from a comparative analysis of global, US cotton, Indian cotton and domestic cotton markets, the operation of the domestic cotton market this year has many unique characteristics. First, domestic The foreign market is highly differentiated, with market prices rising and falling out of sync. Second, the poor circulation of cotton and products at home and abroad has led to insufficient downstream orders for domestic cotton and low operating rates of textile companies, resulting in a decline in cotton demand. Third, changes in the global economic situation and exchange rates, coupled with the expansion and prolongation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, make the cotton market prone to fluctuations in the short term. Fourth, cross-market arbitrage operations have appeared in large numbers in both domestic and foreign markets, and investment institutions have played a more prominent role in the cotton market.
According to the reporter’s understanding, the cotton picking area in Xinjiang, my country’s important cotton-producing area, has increased steadily this year and is expected to be around 37 million acres, with a year-on-year increase of around 3.8%. Although it is currently difficult to move and sell seed cotton and lint cotton across regions, the new supply is sufficient. From the perspective of the global cotton market, the ups and downs of U.S. cotton prices have a lot to do with capital speculation. After all, market fundamentals will not change qualitatively in the short term. At present, the cotton-producing areas of the United States are still dominated by sunny and good weather, and the picking of new cotton is relatively smooth.
Some market participants said that with the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, there is a high probability that the problem of poor cotton circulation in the new season this year will be effectively solved. Until there is a substantial improvement in downstream demand, market participants expect that the long-term trend of cotton will still be weak. of.
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