Recently, with the short-term recovery trend in the bulk raw material market, the offers of polyester companies have gradually strengthened. However, the good times do not last forever, and the upstream and downstream are surrounded by negative news. Polyester factories are also unable to survive alone, and rebounds are nipped in the bud again and again.
For polyester filament, downstream demand should be the best support during Double Eleven during the Christmas season. However, a recent news from a polyester factory has also made market participants doubt the next market to a certain extent. There was some concern.
Recently, it was revealed that a polyester factory in Shaoxing was suspending production for a three-month holiday, which went viral in the industry. For polyester factories, production shutdowns generally require careful consideration. The opening and closing of equipment in polyester factories is very complicated. The editor still remembers being in the workshop when the equipment had to be shut down due to the epidemic. All the men in the workshop stood in front of them. The shutdown device was shut down for a whole day, and turning it on was even more troublesome. Since the temperature of the boiler dropped after shutting down, and various parameters changed slightly, the process parameters were constantly adjusted in the first week after it was turned on. The polyester factory stopped production under this situation, indicating that the market has indeed reached the bottom.
The closure of polyester factories will undoubtedly deal a heavy blow to the industry’s expectations for year-end orders. Thinking of the fact that the performance of chemical fiber giants also declined significantly in the third quarter, it is an indisputable fact that competition in the polyester industry is fierce and consumption is sluggish.
Terminal loom operations drop sharply
Restricting the rebound trend of raw materials
Recently, the China Cotton Textile Industry Association conducted a survey on the operation of the industrial cluster market. It is understood that the operation of the industry has been affected by multiple adverse factors such as the global economic downturn and the epidemic. Enterprise operations are facing greater challenges and will continue to move forward under pressure.
According to white cloth cluster enterprises, the current opening rate is less than 70%, which is basically the same as last month. Downstream market demand has further declined, and companies generally report that sales continue to decline, orders continue to decrease, and inventories increase to varying degrees. In order to stabilize employment, most companies barely maintain production. The market outlook is expected to remain pessimistic.
According to yarn-dyed fabric cluster enterprises, recent product orders are still insufficient. Affected by the international trade situation, transportation costs continue to be high and product profits are meager. Looking forward to the market outlook, it is expected that it will be difficult to increase orders, there are many uncertainties in the market, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment.
According to reports from denim cluster enterprises, the current opening rate remains at around 80%. In the domestic market, under the influence of the epidemic, customers are not willing to place orders. In the international market, affected by many factors such as high inflation, consumers’ willingness to spend on clothing has dropped significantly. Market sales are generally not ideal, and customers have stepped up their efforts to cut prices and remove inventory. We hope that the epidemic situation will improve and market confidence may recover.
The inventory of polyester varieties is relatively high, and the inventory of polyester filament has continued to rise since October. Although the pressure on manufacturers has been slightly relieved after recent promotions and destocking, the average factory inventory is more than one month, and polyester filament is difficult to pack lightly. Going into battle, the uphill climb is tough.
It is understood that the start-up of terminal looms has dropped to around 60%, and the inventory level of terminal finished products is not high. The inventory is mostly concentrated in polyester and its upstream and downstream fields. The industrial chain has no major positive boost and continues to be in a sluggish situation. Downstream Factory procurement maintains rigid demand, and bottom-up production and sales are hindered, which to a certain extent also restricts the rebound of raw materials.
The decline gradually turned from dark to bright
Polyester factories still have to go through the pain of “destocking”
The current polyester filament production rate is at a historical low for the same period in recent years. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 58.26%. The comprehensive operating rate of texturing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 54.4%. From the perspective of inventory, the current overall inventory level of the industry is still above one month. Domestic demand is insufficient and demand is shrinking overseas. Due to the European energy crisis, Christmas orders have been significantly reduced. As winter orders gradually run out, the polyester industry chain, including polyester filament, will enter holiday mode ahead of schedule. It is difficult for polyester filament to “stabilize prices” for a long time, and the market cannot escape the curse of falling for a long time. It is expected that after the middle of the month, as the downstream weaving operation rate gradually declines, polyester filament will gradually enter a negative downward mode, and as inventory pressure continues to increase, If the market is large, the decline will gradually turn from dark to bright.
The structural, regional and periodic surplus situation in the polyester market industry is still severe, and the weak downstream demand has not improved. The situation faced by polyester factories is still difficult to say optimistic, but for the sustainable development of the polyester industry, We still have to go through the pain of “destocking”.
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