In recent years, the PTA industry chain integration project has continued to improve, new equipment has been put into operation, some backward production capacity has been cleared, and industry concentration has increased significantly. However, the crude oil market surged in 2022, and the PTA industry chain has undergone earth-shaking changes. The profits of each link in the industry chain have been greatly compressed, and PTA processing fees have become negative, reaching a record low. In terms of polyester, except for bottle chips, which are still profitable, other products are hovering near the profit and loss line.
Seriously torn upstream and downstream
PTA enterprise suffered annual losses
Entering 2022, the processing fees of domestic PTA companies will continue to decline. At the beginning of the year, the processing fee remained at 600-700 yuan/ton. When the international oil price soared to 130 US dollars/barrel, the price of raw material PX rose simultaneously. However, the price increase of downstream PTA products is slow, and PTA processing fees have repeatedly reached new lows. Although the main PTA suppliers’ equipment has been intensively overhauled and the supply has shrunk significantly. At the same time, the demand for downstream polyester has gradually recovered, and the market accumulation has been alleviated. However, the PTA processing fee has not been repaired as expected. The fundamental reason for this result is Prices on the cost side have risen too fast, while downstream demand is weak, upstream and downstream are in a state of serious tearing, and the profits of intermediate products continue to be squeezed.
On March 9, the average PTA spot processing fee was -91 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of acetic acid in East China on that day was 4,125 yuan/ton. The converted PTA consumption cost per ton was 144 yuan/ton. If the cost of acetic acid is excluded, the net PTA The processing fee is only -235 yuan/ton, a record low. With the correction of oil prices, cost pressure has eased, and processing fees have been restored to a certain extent. The highest processing fee appeared above 1,000 yuan/ton in September. The processing fee in the first quarter remains at 400 yuan/ton, the second quarter processing fee remains at 380 yuan/ton, the third quarter processing fee remains at 626 yuan/ton, and the fourth quarter processing fee is estimated to be around 400 yuan/ton.
Calculated based on the industry-wide average processing fee of 600 yuan/ton, the average loss of companies in the first quarter of 2022 is 200 yuan/ton, the average loss of companies in the second quarter is 220 yuan/ton, the average profit of companies in the third quarter is 26 yuan/ton, and the average profit of companies in the fourth quarter is 200 yuan/ton. The loss is 200 yuan/ton.
The 2.5 million ton device is about to be put into operation!
New 20.2 million tons PTA equipment will be launched next year
In addition, with the rapid launch of integration projects, domestic PTA production capacity has increased rapidly in recent years. With the new equipment put into operation, the production capacity will increase to 67.805 million tons in 2022, and the 2.5 million tons unit of Weilian Petrochemical is about to be put into operation. The total domestic PTA production capacity will reach 70.305 million tons, and the domestic PTA market is in an oversupply situation.
According to statistics, based on existing production capacity and public information, a total of 20.2 million tons of new PTA devices will continue to be launched in 2023. It is expected that the supply and demand situation in the PTA market will be difficult to improve in 2023, and oversupply is still the industry consensus. In 2023, it is necessary to maintain low processing fees and further reduce the operating rate to rebalance supply and demand, or to eliminate old equipment.
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