PTA benefits affect capacity utilization
The release of PTA production capacity is similar to last year, and the launch of some new production capacity has been delayed due to the impact of raw materials and efficiency.
Judging from the new production capacity in 2022, on the one hand, they are all large-scale devices with a capacity of more than 2 million tons; on the other hand, they are all integrated devices, supporting upstream and downstream. Leading companies such as Yisheng, Hengli, Xinfengming, Fuhaichuang, Shenghong, and Tongkun have production capacities of up to 10,000 tons, accounting for 68.6% of the total production capacity. Single devices with a capacity of more than 2 million tons accounted for 62%, and the proportion of large devices increased. The overall new production capacity is characterized by integration and large-scale installations, and is concentrated in leading enterprises. PTA production is expected to reach 54.1 million tons in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 3%.
The PTA production capacity launch cycle will continue in 2023, and the launch pace will be affected by poor efficiency. PTA production capacity planned to be put into operation in 2023 includes 5 million tons of the delayed Hengli Petrochemical Huizhou project, 2.5 million tons of Jiatong Energy Phase II, 3 million tons of Yizheng Chemical Fiber, 1.5 million tons of Ningbo Taihua, and 2.5 million tons of Dushan Energy. It is expected that 14.5 million tons of new production capacity will be added, and the production capacity will reach 89.33 million tons by then. Adding the production capacity released at the end of 2022, the supply pressure brought by the new production capacity in 2023 will be greater.
In 2022, due to the disturbance of crude oil and PX, the efficiency of the PTA unit was sluggish. It was once in a negative processing difference and the average operating rate was only 73%. Superimposed on the severe impact of PX raw materials, unplanned maintenance increased, and the installation load fell below 70% for a long time. Although the new production capacity has certain advantages in terms of cost, the current sluggish efficiency of PTA still makes it difficult for PTA production companies. The release process of new production capacity will be accompanied by the concentration of new production capacity to leading companies. With low processing fees, leading companies will still be able to raise processing fees. frequently.
The operating rate of PTA equipment may further decline in 2023. Based on the operating rate of 72%, Hengli Petrochemical’s Huizhou project will reach production in the first quarter, and PTA output is expected to reach 58 million tons in 2023.
The average production and sales of polyester filament this week was 92%, an increase of 9% from last week. At the beginning of the week, the quotations of polyester filament manufacturers increased, and downstream users moderately covered their positions in the rising buying atmosphere. Downstream users bought at low prices, and the overall production and sales rate of polyester filament increased during the week. At present, as crude oil prices fall, new PX production capacity is put into operation, PTA processing profits are restored, polyester leaders maintain production cuts, direct-spun polyester yarn processing profits return, surface cash flow is good, and polyester yarn prices stabilize. As the weather cools down, prevention and control measures in various places are further opened up, companies go overseas to grab orders and other factors, textile factories also experience a small upsurge in shipments. Some cashmere product production factories work overtime to increase production, and inventory pressure is released. However, it should be noted that appropriate Be prepared and beware of buying high and selling low.
Deepen transformation and upgrading to improve development resilience
Looking forward to 2023, the textile industry will see both opportunities and challenges. From an external perspective, with the complex evolution of the international political situation and increasing constraints on economic recovery such as high inflation, there is high uncertainty in the prospects of the international market. Intensified market competition and rising risks in the foreign trade environment will all affect the ability of textile companies to resist risks. Forming a new round of tests.
Domestically, the textile industry still has the basic conditions for stable development. The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was successfully held, and my country has begun a new journey to comprehensively build a modern socialist country. It will continue to efficiently coordinate the results of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, ensure that my country’s macroeconomic fundamentals are improving in the long term, and create opportunities for the stable operation of the textile industry chain. In a good environment, the domestic demand market still has room for upgrade and development based on its large capacity.
In 2023, with the release of favorable macroeconomic policies such as domestic real estate and epidemic prevention and control, consumption is expected to continue to grow and domestic demand will gradually increase; while overseas recession expectations continue to rise, and there are obvious signs of weakening consumption. The downstream textile industry is still under great pressure to maintain stable operation in 2023. It must deepen transformation and upgrading, improve development resilience, and resolve risks and challenges.
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