According to feedback from some international cotton merchants and trading companies, the quantity of cotton from the United States, Mexico, Greece, Benin, Spain and other producing areas in the January/February/March shipping schedule is relatively concentrated, with M 1-1/8 (or 31-3 36 ) 28/29GPT indicator is the main indicator; while the shipping schedules of Brazilian cotton and Australian cotton are concentrated in December/January, there are relatively few shipping futures sources in March and after; Indian cotton far-month cargo quotations in 2022/23 are sparse, with only a small amount There are quotations for bonded old cotton (in 2019/20 and 2020/21), and Chinese cotton textile companies and middlemen are paying less attention to Indian cotton.
A cotton company in Qingdao said that it was worried that the fiber length (1-1/8 and below) of the 2022/23 US cotton (excluding EMOT) shipped in December/January was relatively average (28GPT and below). ), coupled with the increasing trend of RMB depreciation against the US dollar, it is not uncommon for buyers and sellers to negotiate a contract period delay of 1-2 months. In addition, considering that the quantity of Brazilian cotton shipped and arriving at the port since October is large, slightly better in consistency, and the transaction price has some advantages compared with the port’s 2021/22 US cotton, purchasers are not in a hurry to restock in December/January. For Argentine, Mexican and African cotton, currently there are mainly small and medium-sized textile companies that do not have quotas but have purchase intentions from January to March 2023.
Judging from the quotation, the net weight price of Brazilian cotton M 1-1/8 (strong 28/29GPT) cleared by Qingdao Port on January 2-3 is about 17,000-17,200 yuan/ton; Brazilian cotton SM1-5/32 (strong 29/ 30GPT) net weight has a fixed price of 17,400-17,800 yuan/ton; while the 2021/22 US cotton 31-3/31-436/37 (strong 28/29GPT) has a fixed price of 18,200-18,400 yuan/ton, and the port spot Brazilian cotton and US cotton The price difference of cotton has widened compared with November/December. On the one hand, the quantity of 2021/22 Brazilian cotton/Australian cotton shipped and arriving at the port in the fourth quarter of 2022 continues to increase. Traders feel relatively strong sales pressure, so they adopt the strategy of “high quotation, big discount, low transaction”; on the other hand, On the other hand, the market is still worried about the decline in the quality of U.S. cotton in 2022/23 (judging from the previous resource report, the fiber length may not be ideal); coupled with factors such as cooling and precipitation, the shipment of U.S. cotton from some origins may be delayed. Therefore, Traders’ price support sentiment for US cotton in the port in 2020/21 and 2021/22 is actually stronger.
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