Yesterday, reporters observed from the data monitored by the First Textile Network that as of the evening of January 31, 2023, a total of 45 A-share listed textile and chemical fiber companies disclosed performance forecasts for their 2022 annual reports. Among them, 4 companies had pre-increased, and 13 19 companies pre-empted losses and 19 companies pre-empted losses.
Judging from published announcements, leading companies in the industry such as Hengli Petrochemical, Tongkun Group, and Dongfang Shenghong are expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2022, generally falling by 80% to 90% compared with the same period last year. wait.
Enterprises suffer from dual operating pressures of high costs and low demand
Regarding the decline in performance, listed companies in the textile and chemical fiber category generally stated that the main reasons are firstly the intertwined driving and influence of domestic and foreign macro factors such as the international situation, energy crisis and repeated epidemics, and secondly the long lockdown period in various places in the first half of last year, which led to logistics obstruction, Poor customer communication, thirdly, intensified industry competition and weak end demand, and fourthly, the energy crisis in the international environment has led to a sharp increase in the price of bulk commodity raw materials.
The reporter observed that in the announcements released one after another, some companies had positive net profits but were significantly reduced compared with the same period in the first half of last year, while some companies had negative net profits and expected net profit losses for the year.
According to preliminary calculations by the financial department of Tongkun Group Co., Ltd., it is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2022 will be 300 million yuan to 420 million yuan, a decrease of 6,912,199,600 yuan to 7,032,199,600 yuan compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 94.27% to 95.91%.
“During the reporting period, the international and domestic situation changed dramatically, which brought huge challenges to the development of the real economy.” Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. stated in the announcement that from the external environment, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a significant increase in the oil price center, and the company’s raw material costs Rising sharply, the Federal Reserve entered an interest rate hike cycle, resulting in weak overseas demand; from the internal environment, the impact of the epidemic unexpectedly expanded, the order of production, circulation and other links was disrupted, and areas such as real estate and household consumption faced downward pressure on the economy, which also had a negative impact on domestic polyester filament yarns. Demand has a greater negative impact. After Zhejiang Petrochemical, in which his company has a stake, entered the second half of the year, product prices fell month-on-month and profit margins declined. The investment income contributed to the company fell significantly compared with the same period last year, causing the company’s overall profit to decline significantly compared with the previous year.
Different from Tongkun Group, Hengyi Petrochemical’s announcement showed that during the reporting period, the net profit loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company ranged from 900 million yuan to 1.200 million yuan, a decrease of 126%-135% from the same period last year.
“During the reporting period, in the face of multiple challenges such as the accelerating world changes, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, and the domestic economic downturn, the company’s operating environment has been affected by multiple unfavorable factors, including weak downstream terminal consumer demand, production costs such as energy, transportation, and auxiliary materials, etc. The price of crude oil and related products in the industry chain has risen significantly, and the prices of crude oil and related products in the industry chain have fluctuated violently.” Hengyi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stated in the announcement that during the reporting period, although the company’s polyester segment still maintained its leading competitive advantage in the industry, filament, staple fiber, bottle flakes, etc. The products complement each other, but under the above-mentioned multiple pressures, the downstream demand for the polyester sector is extremely weak, especially the price difference of polyester fiber (including filament and short fiber) products has narrowed significantly year-on-year.
In addition, the production and operation capacity of the company’s Brunei refining and chemical segment has been significantly improved, and operating efficiency has shown an upward trend. However, since the second half of last year, due to multiple pressures such as weak demand, rising costs, and price fluctuations, the price spreads of corresponding products in the Brunei refining and chemical segment have fallen sharply. , especially gasoline, chemical light oil and liquefied petroleum gas, etc. continued to suffer losses, and the profit margins of Brunei’s refining and chemical sector were greatly compressed.
Crude oil is an important product raw material of Hengyi Petrochemical and the main reference benchmark for pricing of upstream and downstream products in the industrial chain. In the case of drastic price fluctuations and weakening downstream demand, the price transmission of upstream and downstream products is not smooth, further increasing the company’s focus on raw materials and The difficulty in operating and managing inventories such as finished goods has caused the gross profit margin of the company’s products to further decline year-on-year.
Polyester industry profits are expected to be repaired in the new year
During the interview, the reporter learned that in 2022, the domestic chemical fiber industry has experienced the double squeeze of high costs and low consumption. The industry’s capacity utilization rate has declined as a whole, and output has also been significantly lower than expected. The overall profits of the industry have deviated, and the performance of related listed companies has also generally declined. in the market’s general expectations.
“For the textile and chemical fiber industry, the market situation in 2023 will be significantly different from that in 2022.” Pang Chunyan, chief analyst of SDIC Anxin Futures Chemicals, told the Futures Daily reporter that on the one hand, energy prices fell back after rising in 2022. At present, the main trend is stability, which means stabilization of costs for the industry. On the other hand, the impact of the new coronavirus infection has been significantly weakened. Although judging from the situation abroad, there may be new infections, the overall impact is declining, and it is expected that residents’ lives will gradually return to normal in the new year. “The increase in employment will provide a strong guarantee for residents’ spending, and it is expected that the increase in travel in the new year will bring consumption growth in the clothing market. At the same time, the worst time for the real estate market has passed, and the recovery of the market outlook may be a matter of time and rhythm. , consumption in the home textile market is also expected to improve year-on-year.” She said.
In Pang Chunyan’s view, the blockage of terminal consumption last year caused obvious negative feedback to the entire industry chain, and the entire industry suffered losses.�The situation will improve with the rebound of terminal consumption, or it may be reflected in the fact that the inventory pressure that chemical fiber companies were unable to remove last year will be reflected in the cyclical accumulation and destocking this year.
In this regard, some listed companies also expressed their expectations for the new year of 2023 in their performance forecasts.
Hengyi Petrochemical said that as of the disclosure date of this report, the company’s and downstream product inventories are at historically low levels; at the same time, with the adjustment and optimization of domestic epidemic prevention and control measures, downstream demand has gradually recovered and picked up, and the price differentials of major products in January have improved month-on-month. , laying a solid foundation for production operations and efficiency improvement in 2023.
In this regard, Pang Chunyan also believes that after the inventory pressure that has plagued polyester companies for a year was relieved at the end of last year, although there will be seasonal accumulation of inventory during the Spring Festival this year, the overall pressure on the company is not great, especially for polyester companies like Hengyi. It can be said to be a good start for the leading silk enterprises.
According to Zijin Tianfeng Futures analyst Liu Siqi, domestic epidemic prevention and control policies will be relaxed in 2023, overseas interest rate hikes will slow down, demand will recover, and the recovery of industrial confidence will become important factors affecting the efficiency of the polyester industry.
As market expectations improve, terminals are more enthusiastic about stocking up before the holidays. Finished product inventories of many major polyester manufacturers have dropped significantly before the holidays. After the Spring Festival in 2023, polyester prices have made a “good start” and polyester cash flow has also remained stable and improved. “This phenomenon releases a signal to the market that the downstream is gradually recovering. With the recovery of end-use textile and clothing consumption, the weaving operating rate has rebounded, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement has increased, inventory pressure has eased, and the upstream and downstream transmission of the industry chain has been smooth. In 2023, polyester industry chain enterprises Production and operations may become more stable, and corporate operating efficiency is expected to improve,” Liu Siqi said.
In her view, the profits of textile and chemical fiber companies are expected to improve in 2023 compared with 2022. The main driver of the improvement is the recovery of domestic demand and increased market confidence. According to reports, after the holiday, the popularity of wholesale markets in Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other places has returned, and the market’s confidence in domestic textile and apparel consumption in the new year has also improved significantly.
“Currently, the profits of polyester products are in a state of recovery after the Spring Festival. With the rebound of terminal consumption, the rigid demand for polyester yarns has increased. It is expected that polyester factories may simultaneously increase their loads.” Pang Chunyan said that the polyester industry has experienced a period of decline in 2022. The dark year of high inventories, low profits, low operations, and negative growth will become a thing of the past. In the new year, the profits of the polyester industry are expected to be restored, and the industry’s operations and output are also expected to return to the track of growth.
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