PTA market trend: weakening after rising
Changes in PTA supply trends: continued growth during the year
On the one hand, the demand has weakened, and on the other hand, the cost has increased. The loss of PTA reached 2.22 million tons in December last year, which was the highest loss in recent years. During the year, with the expansion of PX and the finalization of the contract, the PTA device resumed production seasonally. , production continues to rise. From December to January, capacity utilization increased by more than 5 percentage points to 70.89%, and is expected to continue to rise in February to around 77%. March-April has entered the traditional peak season, and there are few planned maintenance plans that have been announced. If there are no incremental unplanned reductions and shutdowns under low labor costs, it is expected that the load will be above 80% in March-April, and the output may exceed 5 million tons.
Downstream demand trend changes: maintaining seasonal fixes
Judging from the load trend of the industrial chain, in January this year, the loads of PTA, polyester, and weaving were all lower than the same period in previous years, -10.58%, -13.98%, and -30.88% respectively. Demand gradually recovered after the holidays. The load rebounded in February, but it was mostly due to seasonal performance. The actual increase was weaker than expected. PTA and polyester loads may both be around 77%. Compared with previous years, the support for polyester demand has weakened, and the slow heating of weaving is the reason. The main factor dragging down the recovery of polyester load is that the comprehensive weaving load in February is expected to be less than 50%.
On the whole, industrial capacity expansion will continue during the year, and the accumulation of long-axis industrial chains is expected to be difficult to change. In the context of overcapacity, companies with more cost advantages and large industrial scale will have more say in the market, focusing on costs and demand. Support and the impact of PTA’s own mismatch on the market.
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