Where does a country’s economy come from? Exports, consumption, and investment are all the main pillars of the economy. But the weight is actually more in the first two aspects.
Although investment is also very important, if the level of exports and consumption are not attractive, then investors and investment groups may not be too optimistic about our country.
Judging from the sharp decline in my country’s orders in 2022, there will not be much improvement in the beginning of 2023. Will foreign trade orders continue to decline in the future?
The economic level will shrink significantly in 2023
According to news from China.com on the 22nd, the Director of the National Foreign Trade Department stated that entering 2023, the global economic and trade situation will become extremely severe.
In 2022, supply chain disruptions and insufficient performance capabilities will continue to intensify, and among them, trade orders to the United States will suffer further losses.
According to the data report on January 19, 2023, as of December 2022, my country’s import and export scale of goods and services trade based on the balance of payments caliber was 4,238.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%.
Although there is still a trade surplus of US$78.01 billion, if there is no way to reverse the situation, then our country’s trade surplus will be reversed.
Based on the data in 2022, the year-on-year decrease of 7.5% may further expand in 2023.
As more orders are received from the United States, and my country’s export trade competitors are Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore, the loss situation will undergo more adverse changes.
Although the export growth rate of these countries has slowed down, excluding objective factors such as the epidemic, the losses of these countries cannot be compared with our country’s losses.
After the export data changed, although consumption and investment can be relied on to recover losses, judging from the domestic market situation after 2020, consumption levels and income levels have not become more consistent.
As a result, the situation that people are unable to invest more savings in the market will be difficult to change in a short period of time. So what should we do about the economic work in 2023?
Grab an order or a practical method
According to national conditions, among the three main support points, in addition to trade, which can produce more artificial changes, in fact, other consumption and investment can only be changed through strategic adjustments.
However, since our country’s economic system is mainly based on regional economies, it also shows that it is difficult to actually change the situation, so the only way left is to increase foreign trade orders.
However, according to the current market situation, due to various events in 2022, overseas countries may not actively cooperate with our country now, so they can only rely on methods such as “grabbing orders” to increase the volume of order commissions. .
An accurate description is that it is not about grabbing orders, but about expanding one’s own advantages. That is, the rush for orders in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places in December 2022.
Enterprises in these regions choose to go overseas and proactively seek out clients, which gives impetus to regional development. Although this form of seeking is considered by some netizens to be an extreme measure, strictly speaking, if they just sit back and wait for death, Then the shrinkage of the industry will be more serious than the so-called loss of reputation.
In fact, in the global system, the demand side has actually been limited to some de-industrialized countries. For example, the United States is a commodity-based society that is mainly based on commerce. The overseas layout of its manufacturing industry is too large, allowing them to obtain more goods. It is carried out in the form of capital exchange.
However, although this type of country is extremely commercial, it does not mean that they are completely divorced from industry. The emergence of too many entrusted orders creates trade opportunities for other countries, but their selection principles are not too low.
As a supply-side country, our country does have advantages in competition with the title of world factory, but we might as well look back and think about why these order-issuing countries give up orders?
In fact, the main reason is labor cost. The common situation in countries where orders are issued is high income and high welfare. Under such restrictions, the increase in production costs makes it impossible for them to obtain more profits, so placing orders becomes Their best approach.
When Chinese companies go overseas to grab orders, the biggest advantage is actually low labor costs, and this is why my country’s main export trade competition is in Southeast Asia, not Europe and the United States.
However, the current domestic industrial situation has also changed. Although the value of labor has not increased significantly, with the increase in education, the price of labor has been much higher thanPreviously.
Although the price and value are still at a reasonable level, they may have changed compared to earlier.
Conclusion
Enterprises need to obtain more orders in the order competition to effectively ensure the continued development of my country’s manufacturing industry, but at the same time is another thing, that is, we need to further shift our identity from the supply side to the demand side.
Basic manufacturing needs to increase orders to stabilize the economic situation, while high-end manufacturing should focus on more advanced markets.
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